· Analysis updated 02:47 UTC
Dinamo Makhachkala vs Leningradets Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.76 expected goals for Dinamo Makhachkala and 1.41 for Leningradets, a combined total of 3.17. That distribution gives Dinamo Makhachkala the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 62% for over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Dinamo Makhachkala win
46.0% probability
Expected goals
1.76 – 1.41
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Dinamo Makhachkala home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Leningradets away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Dinamo Makhachkala to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 46% / 23% / 31% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.76 goals for Dinamo Makhachkala and 1.41 for Leningradets, a combined 3.17 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
69%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
54%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.4%
- 2–19.2%
- 1–07.4%
- 1–27.3%
- 2–06.5%
Recent form
Dinamo Makhachkala
- 2026-10-25T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Zenit · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-17T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Akron · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-14T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Zenit · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-10T10:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Orenburg · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Leningradets · 3-2 (W)
Leningradets
- 2026-10-25T13:00:00.000Z · A vs FK Neftekhimik · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-17T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Spartak Kostroma · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-14T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Luki-Energiya · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-10T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Torpedo Moskva · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Dinamo Makhachkala · 2-3 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-07-04T08:30:00.000Z · Dinamo Makhachkala 3-0 Leningradets (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2024-03-10T13:00:00.000Z · Dinamo Makhachkala 2-0 Leningradets (First League)
- 2023-09-10T15:00:00.000Z · Dinamo Makhachkala 2-1 Leningradets (First League)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Dinamo Makhachkala win, at 46.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 63% and over 2.5 goals at 62%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.