Dinamo Stadium · Analysis updated 07:11 UTC
Dinamo Minsk vs Arsenal Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.90 expected goals for Dinamo Minsk and 0.85 for Arsenal, a combined total of 2.75. That distribution gives Dinamo Minsk the largest share of the 1X2 market at 62%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 62% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Dinamo Minsk win
62.1% probability
Expected goals
1.90 – 0.85
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Dinamo Minsk home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Arsenal away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 9 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
84%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
38%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–012.1%
- 2–011.5%
- 1–110.3%
- 2–19.8%
- 3–07.3%
Recent form
Dinamo Minsk
- 2026-10-24T10:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Gomel · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-19T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Arsenal · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-15T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Slavia Mozyr · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-11T16:30:00.000Z · A vs FC Dnepr Mogilev · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-04T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Uni Minsk · 3-0 (W)
Arsenal
- 2026-09-18T16:00:00.000Z · A vs ML Vitebsk · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Baranovichi · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-07T14:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Isloch Minsk R. · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-30T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Torpedo Zhodino · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-08-22T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Belshina · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-05-30T11:00:00.000Z · Dinamo Minsk 1-0 Arsenal (Premier League)
- 2025-11-08T14:00:00.000Z · Dinamo Minsk 1-0 Arsenal (Premier League)
- 2025-06-22T13:30:00.000Z · Dinamo Minsk 1-2 Arsenal (Premier League)
- 2024-10-29T16:00:00.000Z · Dinamo Minsk 2-0 Arsenal (Premier League)
- 2024-06-01T15:00:00.000Z · Dinamo Minsk 2-1 Arsenal (Premier League)
- 2023-03-11T11:30:00.000Z · Dinamo Minsk 2-0 Arsenal (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2022-09-24T09:00:00.000Z · Dinamo Minsk 0-0 Arsenal (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2022-08-14T16:30:00.000Z · Dinamo Minsk 1-0 Arsenal (Premier League)
- 2022-04-02T12:00:00.000Z · Dinamo Minsk 1-1 Arsenal (Premier League)
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ML Vitebsk | 25 | 16 | 8 | 1 | 34 | 56 |
| 2 | Dinamo Minsk | 25 | 17 | 4 | 4 | 27 | 55 |
| 3 | FC Isloch Minsk R. | 25 | 15 | 7 | 3 | 27 | 52 |
| 4 | Dinamo Brest | 26 | 14 | 5 | 7 | 19 | 47 |
| 5 | Neman | 26 | 13 | 4 | 9 | 7 | 43 |
| 6 | FC Vitebsk | 26 | 11 | 7 | 8 | 6 | 40 |
| 7 | FC Gomel | 26 | 11 | 7 | 8 | 10 | 40 |
| 8 | FC Minsk | 26 | 10 | 4 | 12 | -3 | 34 |
| 9 | Torpedo Zhodino | 26 | 9 | 6 | 11 | -3 | 33 |
| 10 | Slavia Mozyr | 26 | 8 | 7 | 11 | -2 | 31 |
| 11 | Baranovichi | 26 | 7 | 7 | 12 | -16 | 28 |
| 12 | Belshina | 25 | 6 | 6 | 13 | -18 | 24 |
| 13 | Arsenal | 26 | 5 | 9 | 12 | -20 | 24 |
| 14 | Bate Borisov | 26 | 4 | 9 | 13 | -14 | 21 |
| 15 | FC Dnepr Mogilev | 26 | 3 | 11 | 12 | -16 | 20 |
| 16 | Naftan | 26 | 4 | 5 | 17 | -38 | 17 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Dinamo Minsk win, at 62.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 49% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.
A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.