Dinamo Minsk vs Naftan Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.35 expected goals for Dinamo Minsk and 0.95 for Naftan, a combined total of 3.30. That distribution gives Dinamo Minsk the largest share of the 1X2 market at 69%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 64% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 69% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Dinamo Minsk win

68.5% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

2.35 – 0.95

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Dinamo Minsk home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Naftan away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Dinamo Minsk win69%

Draw18%

Naftan win14%

Double chance 1X

86%

Double chance 12

82%

Double chance X2

31%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals84%

Over 2.5 goals64%

Over 3.5 goals42%

Both teams to score55%

Correct score

2–010.2%
2–19.7%
1–08.7%
1–18.2%
3–08.0%

Recent form

Dinamo Minsk

2026-10-15T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Slavia Mozyr · 3-1 (W)
2026-10-11T16:30:00.000Z · A vs FC Dnepr Mogilev · 3-2 (W)
2026-10-04T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Uni Minsk · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-19T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Bate Borisov · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-13T17:10:00.000Z · H vs Dinamo Brest · 0-1 (L)

Naftan

2026-10-19T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Torpedo Zhodino · 0-1 (L)
2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Belshina · 4-1 (W)
2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Slavia Mozyr · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-13T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Bate Borisov · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-06T10:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Minsk · 0-3 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-09-02T17:30:00.000Z · Dinamo Minsk 5-1 Naftan (Premier League)
2026-02-18T14:00:00.000Z · Dinamo Minsk 1-1 Naftan (Friendlies Clubs)
2025-11-16T11:00:00.000Z · Dinamo Minsk 2-0 Naftan (Friendlies Clubs)
2025-10-25T11:00:00.000Z · Dinamo Minsk 3-1 Naftan (Premier League)
2025-05-31T15:00:00.000Z · Dinamo Minsk 1-0 Naftan (Premier League)
2024-10-13T12:00:00.000Z · Dinamo Minsk 2-1 Naftan (Premier League)
2024-04-07T15:00:00.000Z · Dinamo Minsk 2-2 Naftan (Premier League)
2023-09-02T14:00:00.000Z · Dinamo Minsk 3-0 Naftan (Premier League)
2023-04-22T16:00:00.000Z · Dinamo Minsk 3-1 Naftan (Premier League)
2023-02-28T15:00:00.000Z · Dinamo Minsk 2-0 Naftan (Friendlies Clubs)

Premier League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	ML Vitebsk	25	16	8	1	34	56
2	Dinamo Minsk	25	17	4	4	27	55
3	FC Isloch Minsk R.	25	15	7	3	27	52
4	Dinamo Brest	25	13	5	7	16	44
5	Neman	25	13	4	8	10	43
6	FC Vitebsk	26	11	7	8	6	40
7	FC Gomel	26	11	7	8	10	40
8	FC Minsk	26	10	4	12	-3	34
9	Torpedo Zhodino	25	9	6	10	-1	33
10	Slavia Mozyr	25	7	7	11	-4	28
11	Baranovichi	26	7	7	12	-16	28
12	Belshina	25	6	6	13	-18	24
13	Arsenal	25	5	8	12	-20	23
14	Bate Borisov	26	4	9	13	-14	21
15	FC Dnepr Mogilev	25	3	10	12	-16	19
16	Naftan	26	4	5	17	-38	17

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Dinamo Minsk win, at 68.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 64%.

A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.