Dinamo Minsk vs Neftchi Baku Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 3.00 expected goals for Dinamo Minsk and 1.50 for Neftchi Baku, a combined total of 4.50. That distribution gives Dinamo Minsk the largest share of the 1X2 market at 68%, with the draw at 16%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 82% for over 2.5 goals and 74% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 68% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Dinamo Minsk win

67.8% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

3.00 – 1.50

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Dinamo Minsk win68%

Draw16%

Neftchi Baku win17%

Double chance 1X

83%

Double chance 12

84%

Double chance X2

32%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals94%

Over 2.5 goals82%

Over 3.5 goals65%

Both teams to score74%

Correct score

2–17.5%
3–17.5%
4–15.6%
2–25.6%
3–25.6%

Why the model likes this

Dinamo Minsk home form
1 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Dinamo Minsk to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 68%, against 68% / 16% / 17% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 3.00 goals for Dinamo Minsk and 1.50 for Neftchi Baku, a combined 4.50 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 82% and both teams to score at 74%, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%.

Recent form

Dinamo Minsk

2026-08-13T17:00:00.000Z · H vs SC Braga · 0-0 (D)
2026-08-06T18:30:00.000Z · A vs SC Braga · 0-1 (L)
2026-07-30T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Neftchi Baku · 0-1 (L)
2026-07-22T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Neftchi Baku · 4-2 (W)
2026-07-16T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Sileks · 1-0 (W)

Neftchi Baku

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.