Dinamo Stadium · Analysis updated 13:39 UTC
Dinamo Minsk vs Slavia Mozyr Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.83 expected goals for Dinamo Minsk and 0.82 for Slavia Mozyr, a combined total of 2.65. That distribution gives Dinamo Minsk the largest share of the 1X2 market at 61%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 49% for over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 61% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Dinamo Minsk win
61.3% probability
Expected goals
1.83 – 0.82
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Dinamo Minsk home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Slavia Mozyr away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Dinamo Minsk to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 61%, against 61% / 22% / 16% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.83 goals for Dinamo Minsk and 0.82 for Slavia Mozyr, a combined 2.65 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
84%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
39%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–012.9%
- 2–011.8%
- 1–110.6%
- 2–19.7%
- 3–07.2%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 7.5%), compared with our model probability.
No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Under 3.5 | 1.30 | 69.6% | 72.5% | 1.38 | +2.9 |
| Both teams to score | No | 1.79 | 51.4% | 53.0% | 1.89 | +1.6 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.22 | 76.5% | 77.6% | 1.29 | +1.1 |
| Match result | Home | 1.54 | 60.4% | 61.3% | 1.63 | +0.9 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 1.88 | 49.7% | 50.6% | 1.98 | +0.9 |
| Match result | Away | 5.85 | 15.9% | 16.3% | 6.13 | +0.4 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.11 | 84.0% | 83.7% | 1.19 | -0.3 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 2.36 | 39.5% | 38.7% | 2.58 | -0.8 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 1.86 | 50.3% | 49.4% | 2.02 | -0.9 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.92 | 23.7% | 22.4% | 4.46 | -1.3 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.89 | 48.6% | 47.0% | 2.13 | -1.6 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 2.97 | 30.4% | 27.5% | 3.64 | -2.9 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Dinamo Minsk
- 2026-10-24T10:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Gomel · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-19T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Arsenal · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-15T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Slavia Mozyr · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-11T16:30:00.000Z · A vs FC Dnepr Mogilev · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-04T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Uni Minsk · 3-0 (W)
Slavia Mozyr
- 2026-10-25T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Torpedo Zhodino · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-10-19T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Belshina · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-10-15T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Dinamo Minsk · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Bate Borisov · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Naftan · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ML Vitebsk | 25 | 16 | 8 | 1 | 34 | 56 |
| 2 | Dinamo Minsk | 25 | 17 | 4 | 4 | 27 | 55 |
| 3 | FC Isloch Minsk R. | 25 | 15 | 7 | 3 | 27 | 52 |
| 4 | Dinamo Brest | 26 | 14 | 5 | 7 | 19 | 47 |
| 5 | Neman | 26 | 13 | 4 | 9 | 7 | 43 |
| 6 | FC Vitebsk | 26 | 11 | 7 | 8 | 6 | 40 |
| 7 | FC Gomel | 26 | 11 | 7 | 8 | 10 | 40 |
| 8 | FC Minsk | 26 | 10 | 4 | 12 | -3 | 34 |
| 9 | Torpedo Zhodino | 26 | 9 | 6 | 11 | -3 | 33 |
| 10 | Slavia Mozyr | 26 | 8 | 7 | 11 | -2 | 31 |
| 11 | Baranovichi | 26 | 7 | 7 | 12 | -16 | 28 |
| 12 | Belshina | 25 | 6 | 6 | 13 | -18 | 24 |
| 13 | Arsenal | 26 | 5 | 9 | 12 | -20 | 24 |
| 14 | Bate Borisov | 26 | 4 | 9 | 13 | -14 | 21 |
| 15 | FC Dnepr Mogilev | 26 | 3 | 11 | 12 | -16 | 20 |
| 16 | Naftan | 26 | 4 | 5 | 17 | -38 | 17 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Dinamo Minsk win, at 61.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 47% and over 2.5 goals at 49%.
A 61% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.