Dinamo Samarkand Stadium · Analysis updated 12:11 UTC
Dinamo Samarqand vs Bunyodkor Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.55 expected goals for Dinamo Samarqand and 1.30 for Bunyodkor, a combined total of 2.85. That distribution gives Dinamo Samarqand the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 54% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Home/Draw
68.0% probability
Expected goals
1.55 – 1.30
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Dinamo Samarqand home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Bunyodkor away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Dinamo Samarqand to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 43% / 25% / 32% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.55 goals for Dinamo Samarqand and 1.30 for Bunyodkor, a combined 2.85 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
68%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
57%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.7%
- 2–19.0%
- 1–09.0%
- 1–27.6%
- 0–17.5%
Recent form
Dinamo Samarqand
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Buxoro · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-09T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Nasaf · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-17T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Navbahor · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Qizilqum · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Kokand-1912 · 1-1 (D)
Bunyodkor
- 2026-09-19T15:15:00.000Z · H vs Buxoro · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-15T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Lokomotiv · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-09T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Nasaf · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-04T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Surkhon · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Lokomotiv · 1-4 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Neftchi | 25 | 18 | 4 | 3 | 37 | 58 |
| 2 | Pakhtakor | 25 | 15 | 8 | 2 | 19 | 53 |
| 3 | Navbahor | 24 | 13 | 7 | 4 | 18 | 46 |
| 4 | Olmaliq | 25 | 12 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 42 |
| 5 | Nasaf | 25 | 11 | 8 | 6 | 14 | 41 |
| 6 | Buxoro | 25 | 12 | 5 | 8 | 5 | 41 |
| 7 | Lokomotiv | 25 | 11 | 7 | 7 | 9 | 40 |
| 8 | Qizilqum | 25 | 10 | 4 | 11 | -6 | 34 |
| 9 | Andijan | 25 | 9 | 4 | 12 | -3 | 31 |
| 10 | Dinamo Samarqand | 25 | 8 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 31 |
| 11 | Sogdiana | 25 | 8 | 5 | 12 | -7 | 29 |
| 12 | Surkhon | 25 | 7 | 8 | 10 | -9 | 29 |
| 13 | Bunyodkor | 25 | 8 | 2 | 15 | -15 | 26 |
| 14 | Kokand-1912 | 25 | 5 | 8 | 12 | -11 | 23 |
| 15 | Xorazm | 24 | 5 | 8 | 11 | -14 | 23 |
| 16 | Mash'al | 25 | 1 | 1 | 23 | -38 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 68.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 54%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.