· Analysis updated 10:04 UTC
Dinamo St. Petersburg vs Dinamo Vologda Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.67 expected goals for Dinamo St. Petersburg and 0.99 for Dinamo Vologda, a combined total of 2.66. That distribution gives Dinamo St. Petersburg the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 50% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Dinamo St. Petersburg win
53.4% probability
Expected goals
1.67 – 0.99
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Dinamo St. Petersburg home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Dinamo Vologda away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 6 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
78%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
47%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–011.7%
- 1–111.6%
- 2–09.8%
- 2–19.7%
- 0–07.0%
Recent form
Dinamo St. Petersburg
- 2026-10-24T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Zvezda St. Petersburg · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-18T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Torpedo Vladimir · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-14T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Volna Nizhegorodskaya · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Irkutsk · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-04T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Dinamo Vologda · 3-0 (W)
Dinamo Vologda
- 2026-09-17T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Spartak Moscow 2 · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-13T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Tver · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-06T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Iskra Smolensk · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-08-30T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Murom · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-27T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Dinamo St. Petersburg · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-27T16:30:00.000Z · Dinamo St. Petersburg 1-1 Dinamo Vologda (Cup)
- 2026-06-13T11:00:00.000Z · Dinamo St. Petersburg 1-0 Dinamo Vologda (Second League - Group 2)
- 2025-08-20T16:15:00.000Z · Dinamo St. Petersburg 0-1 Dinamo Vologda (Cup)
- 2024-09-22T14:00:00.000Z · Dinamo St. Petersburg 2-1 Dinamo Vologda (Second League - Group 2)
- 2024-06-08T12:00:00.000Z · Dinamo St. Petersburg 3-1 Dinamo Vologda (Second League - Group 2)
- 2023-10-22T11:00:00.000Z · Dinamo St. Petersburg 2-0 Dinamo Vologda (Second League - Group 2)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Dinamo St. Petersburg win, at 53.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 50%.
A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.