Petrovsky Stadium Small Arena · Analysis updated 07:03 UTC
Dinamo St. Petersburg vs Torpedo Vladimir Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.53 expected goals for Dinamo St. Petersburg and 0.63 for Torpedo Vladimir, a combined total of 2.15. That distribution gives Dinamo St. Petersburg the largest share of the 1X2 market at 59%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 36% for over 2.5 goals and 36% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 18%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 59% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Dinamo St. Petersburg win
59.2% probability
Expected goals
1.53 – 0.63
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Dinamo St. Petersburg home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Torpedo Vladimir away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Dinamo St. Petersburg to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 59%, against 59% / 26% / 15% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.53 goals for Dinamo St. Petersburg and 0.63 for Torpedo Vladimir, a combined 2.15 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
85%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
41%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–017.8%
- 2–013.5%
- 0–011.6%
- 1–111.1%
- 2–18.5%
Recent form
Dinamo St. Petersburg
- 2026-10-24T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Zvezda St. Petersburg · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-18T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Torpedo Vladimir · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-14T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Volna Nizhegorodskaya · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Irkutsk · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-04T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Dinamo Vologda · 3-0 (W)
Torpedo Vladimir
- 2026-08-29T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Zvezda St. Petersburg · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-08-25T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Znamya Noginsk · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-15T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Irkutsk · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-12T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Strogino · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-08-09T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Dinamo Vologda · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-06-28T11:00:00.000Z · Dinamo St. Petersburg 1-1 Torpedo Vladimir (Second League - Group 2)
- 2024-10-13T12:00:00.000Z · Dinamo St. Petersburg 1-1 Torpedo Vladimir (Second League - Group 2)
- 2024-06-25T14:30:00.000Z · Dinamo St. Petersburg 2-1 Torpedo Vladimir (Second League - Group 2)
- 2023-10-01T12:00:00.000Z · Dinamo St. Petersburg 0-2 Torpedo Vladimir (Second League - Group 2)
Second League - Group 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Murom | 21 | 14 | 2 | 5 | 18 | 44 |
| 2 | Dinamo St. Petersburg | 20 | 12 | 6 | 2 | 22 | 42 |
| 3 | Luki-Energiya | 21 | 12 | 6 | 3 | 18 | 42 |
| 4 | Baltika II | 21 | 12 | 4 | 5 | 19 | 40 |
| 5 | Chertanovo Moscow | 21 | 11 | 6 | 4 | 21 | 39 |
| 6 | Torpedo Vladimir | 20 | 9 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 32 |
| 7 | Kosmos Dolgoprudny | 21 | 8 | 4 | 9 | -6 | 28 |
| 8 | Tver | 21 | 7 | 3 | 11 | -6 | 24 |
| 9 | Cherepovets | 20 | 7 | 3 | 10 | -11 | 24 |
| 10 | Zvezda St. Petersburg | 20 | 5 | 9 | 6 | 0 | 24 |
| 11 | Dinamo Vologda | 20 | 6 | 5 | 9 | 3 | 23 |
| 12 | Spartak Moscow 2 | 21 | 6 | 5 | 10 | -6 | 23 |
| 13 | Yenisey II | 21 | 5 | 4 | 12 | -17 | 19 |
| 14 | Iskra Smolensk | 21 | 3 | 6 | 12 | -25 | 15 |
| 15 | Irkutsk | 21 | 3 | 2 | 16 | -35 | 11 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Dinamo St. Petersburg win, at 59.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 36% and over 2.5 goals at 36%.
A 59% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.