· Analysis updated 14:42 UTC
Dinamo Stavropol vs Astrakhan Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.54 expected goals for Dinamo Stavropol and 1.21 for Astrakhan, a combined total of 2.75. That distribution gives Dinamo Stavropol the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
70.0% probability
Expected goals
1.54 – 1.21
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Dinamo Stavropol home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Astrakhan away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Dinamo Stavropol to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 45% / 25% / 30% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.54 goals for Dinamo Stavropol and 1.21 for Astrakhan, a combined 2.75 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
70%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
55%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.9%
- 1–09.8%
- 2–19.2%
- 0–17.7%
- 2–07.6%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 11.0%), compared with our model probability.
No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Under 3.5 | 1.34 | 67.5% | 70.3% | 1.42 | +2.8 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.25 | 72.4% | 74.8% | 1.34 | +2.4 |
| Match result | Away | 3.18 | 28.3% | 29.9% | 3.34 | +1.6 |
| Both teams to score | No | 2.11 | 43.4% | 44.9% | 2.23 | +1.5 |
| Match result | Home | 2.04 | 44.2% | 44.9% | 2.23 | +0.7 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 1.95 | 47.4% | 48.1% | 2.08 | +0.7 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 1.76 | 52.6% | 51.9% | 1.93 | -0.7 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.62 | 55.8% | 55.0% | 1.82 | -0.8 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.62 | 56.6% | 55.1% | 1.81 | -1.5 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.26 | 71.8% | 70.0% | 1.43 | -1.8 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.28 | 27.5% | 25.1% | 3.98 | -2.4 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 2.78 | 32.5% | 29.7% | 3.37 | -2.8 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Dinamo Stavropol
- 2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Amkar · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Tyumen · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-09T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Nizhny Novgorod · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Irtysh Omsk · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-30T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Torpedo Miass · 1-2 (L)
Astrakhan
- 2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Angust Nazran · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Izberbash · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-12T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Pobeda · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Dynamo Makhachkala II · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-29T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Lugansk · 0-4 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 70.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.
A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.