Dinamo Tbilisi II vs Gardabani Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.73 expected goals for Dinamo Tbilisi II and 0.95 for Gardabani, a combined total of 2.68. That distribution gives Dinamo Tbilisi II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 50% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Dinamo Tbilisi II win

55.6% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.73 – 0.95

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Dinamo Tbilisi II home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Dinamo Tbilisi II to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 56%, against 56% / 24% / 21% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.73 goals for Dinamo Tbilisi II and 0.95 for Gardabani, a combined 2.68 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 50% and both teams to score at 50%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%.

Match result (1X2)

Dinamo Tbilisi II win56%

Draw24%

Gardabani win21%

Double chance 1X

79%

Double chance 12

76%

Double chance X2

44%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals75%

Over 2.5 goals50%

Over 3.5 goals28%

Both teams to score50%

Correct score

1–011.9%
1–111.3%
2–010.3%
2–19.7%
0–06.9%

Recent form

Dinamo Tbilisi II

2026-09-17T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Guria · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Gonio · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-03T12:30:00.000Z · A vs FC Iberia 1999 II · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-27T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Lokomotivi Tbilisi · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-20T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Iveria Khashuri · 5-2 (W)

Gardabani

2026-09-03T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Betlemi · 2-1 (W)
2026-08-27T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Merani Tbilisi · 1-4 (L)
2026-08-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Didube 2014 · 1-2 (L)
2026-08-13T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Irao · 0-3 (L)
2026-08-06T13:00:00.000Z · H vs WIT Georgia · 0-5 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-06-15T14:00:00.000Z · Dinamo Tbilisi II 4-1 Gardabani (Liga 3)

Liga 3 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Guria	25	17	5	3	56	56
2	Varketili	25	16	8	1	44	56
3	FC Iberia 1999 II	25	12	10	3	22	46
4	Gonio	25	13	5	7	10	44
5	Merani Tbilisi	25	12	7	6	7	43
6	WIT Georgia	25	11	5	9	9	38
7	Irao	25	10	6	9	10	36
8	Dinamo Tbilisi II	25	10	6	9	3	36
9	Didube 2014	25	9	8	8	3	35
10	Lokomotivi Tbilisi	25	9	7	9	3	34
11	Margveti 2006	25	10	4	11	-8	34
12	Kolkheti Khobi	25	7	5	13	-15	26
13	Iveria Khashuri	25	3	11	11	-14	20
14	Gardabani	25	4	4	17	-42	16
15	Betlemi	25	4	4	17	-51	16
16	Iberia 2010	25	3	5	17	-37	14

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Dinamo Tbilisi II win, at 55.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 50%.

A 56% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.