Dinamo Tbilisi vs FC Iberia 1999 Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.48 expected goals for Dinamo Tbilisi and 1.15 for FC Iberia 1999, a combined total of 2.63. That distribution gives Dinamo Tbilisi the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 49% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Home/Draw

70.4% probability

High confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.48 – 1.15

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Dinamo Tbilisi home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
FC Iberia 1999 away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Dinamo Tbilisi win45%

Draw26%

FC Iberia 1999 win30%

Double chance 1X

70%

Double chance 12

74%

Double chance X2

55%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals74%

Over 2.5 goals49%

Over 3.5 goals27%

Both teams to score53%

Correct score

1–112.3%
1–010.7%
2–19.1%
0–18.3%
2–07.9%

Recent form

Dinamo Tbilisi

2026-10-11T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Dinamo Batumi · 0-1 (L)
2026-10-04T15:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Iberia 1999 · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Samgurali · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-14T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Gagra · 4-0 (W)
2026-09-10T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Meshakhte · 0-0 (D)

FC Iberia 1999

2026-10-10T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Meshakhte · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-04T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Dinamo Tbilisi · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-21T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Rustavi · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-17T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Dila · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-13T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Spaeri · 1-0 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-10-04T15:00:00.000Z · Dinamo Tbilisi 2-1 FC Iberia 1999 (Erovnuli Liga)
2026-06-27T15:00:00.000Z · Dinamo Tbilisi 0-1 FC Iberia 1999 (Super Cup)
2026-05-16T15:00:00.000Z · Dinamo Tbilisi 2-0 FC Iberia 1999 (Erovnuli Liga)
2026-03-15T14:00:00.000Z · Dinamo Tbilisi 0-0 FC Iberia 1999 (Erovnuli Liga)
2025-11-26T15:00:00.000Z · Dinamo Tbilisi 0-1 FC Iberia 1999 (Erovnuli Liga)
2025-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · Dinamo Tbilisi 2-1 FC Iberia 1999 (Erovnuli Liga)
2025-05-20T16:00:00.000Z · Dinamo Tbilisi 0-1 FC Iberia 1999 (Erovnuli Liga)
2025-04-09T16:00:00.000Z · Dinamo Tbilisi 1-2 FC Iberia 1999 (Erovnuli Liga)
2024-11-01T16:00:00.000Z · Dinamo Tbilisi 0-2 FC Iberia 1999 (Erovnuli Liga)
2024-08-25T16:00:00.000Z · Dinamo Tbilisi 0-3 FC Iberia 1999 (Erovnuli Liga)

Erovnuli Liga table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Rustavi	28	14	7	7	11	49
2	FC Iberia 1999	28	15	4	9	9	49
3	Dinamo Tbilisi	27	13	9	5	15	48
4	Dinamo Batumi	27	13	8	6	10	47
5	Dila	28	12	4	12	6	40
6	Torpedo Kutaisi	27	9	9	9	9	36
7	Samgurali	27	9	5	13	-14	32
8	Gagra	27	6	11	10	-12	29
9	Spaeri	27	5	10	12	-9	25
10	Meshakhte	28	2	11	15	-25	17

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 70.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 49%.

A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.