Dinamo Tbilisi vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.95 expected goals for Dinamo Tbilisi and 1.68 for FK Zalgiris Vilnius, a combined total of 3.63. That distribution gives Dinamo Tbilisi the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 70% for over 2.5 goals and 70% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Home/Draw

66.3% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data38/100

Expected goals

1.95 – 1.68

Model version

poisson-v1

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Dinamo Tbilisi win45%

Draw22%

FK Zalgiris Vilnius win34%

Double chance 1X

66%

Double chance 12

78%

Double chance X2

55%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals88%

Over 2.5 goals70%

Over 3.5 goals49%

Both teams to score70%

Correct score

1–18.7%
2–18.5%
1–27.3%
2–27.1%
3–15.5%

Why the model likes this

Dinamo Tbilisi home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
FK Zalgiris Vilnius away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Dinamo Tbilisi to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 45% / 22% / 34% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.95 goals for Dinamo Tbilisi and 1.68 for FK Zalgiris Vilnius, a combined 3.63 — an open game on paper.

Recent form

Dinamo Tbilisi

2026-08-15T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Rustavi · 0-3 (L)
2026-08-09T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Spaeri · 2-1 (W)
2026-07-30T17:00:00.000Z · A vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius · 2-7 (L)
2026-07-26T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Guria · 0-1 (L)
2026-07-23T17:00:00.000Z · H vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius · 3-0 (W)

FK Zalgiris Vilnius

2026-08-16T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Banga · 2-3 (L)
2026-08-13T19:00:00.000Z · A vs HNK Hajduk Split · 0-4 (L)
2026-08-06T17:00:00.000Z · H vs HNK Hajduk Split · 2-5 (L)
2026-07-30T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Dinamo Tbilisi · 7-2 (W)
2026-07-27T15:45:00.000Z · A vs Hegelmann Litauen · 3-2 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.