Boris Paichadze Dinamo Arena · Referee G. Machitidze · Analysis updated 13:10 UTC
Dinamo Tbilisi vs Gagra Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.85 expected goals for Dinamo Tbilisi and 0.78 for Gagra, a combined total of 2.63. That distribution gives Dinamo Tbilisi the largest share of the 1X2 market at 63%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 49% for over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 63% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Dinamo Tbilisi win
62.7% probability
Expected goals
1.85 – 0.78
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Dinamo Tbilisi home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Gagra away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Dinamo Tbilisi to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 63%, against 63% / 22% / 15% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.85 goals for Dinamo Tbilisi and 0.78 for Gagra, a combined 2.63 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
85%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
37%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–013.3%
- 2–012.3%
- 1–110.4%
- 2–19.6%
- 3–07.6%
Recent form
Dinamo Tbilisi
- 2026-10-11T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Dinamo Batumi · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-04T15:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Iberia 1999 · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Samgurali · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-14T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Gagra · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-10T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Meshakhte · 0-0 (D)
Gagra
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Meshakhte · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-14T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Dinamo Tbilisi · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-10T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Torpedo Kutaisi · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Dila · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-31T15:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Iberia 1999 · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Erovnuli Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rustavi | 28 | 14 | 7 | 7 | 11 | 49 |
| 2 | FC Iberia 1999 | 28 | 15 | 4 | 9 | 9 | 49 |
| 3 | Dinamo Tbilisi | 27 | 13 | 9 | 5 | 15 | 48 |
| 4 | Dinamo Batumi | 27 | 13 | 8 | 6 | 10 | 47 |
| 5 | Dila | 28 | 12 | 4 | 12 | 6 | 40 |
| 6 | Torpedo Kutaisi | 27 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 36 |
| 7 | Samgurali | 27 | 9 | 5 | 13 | -14 | 32 |
| 8 | Gagra | 27 | 6 | 11 | 10 | -12 | 29 |
| 9 | Spaeri | 27 | 5 | 10 | 12 | -9 | 25 |
| 10 | Meshakhte | 28 | 2 | 11 | 15 | -25 | 17 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Dinamo Tbilisi win, at 62.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 46% and over 2.5 goals at 49%.
A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.