Boris Paichadze Dinamo Arena · Referee I. Shengelia · Analysis updated 07:52 UTC
Dinamo Tbilisi vs Meshakhte Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.75 expected goals for Dinamo Tbilisi and 1.28 for Meshakhte, a combined total of 3.03. That distribution gives Dinamo Tbilisi the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Dinamo Tbilisi win
48.6% probability
Expected goals
1.75 – 1.28
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Dinamo Tbilisi home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Meshakhte away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Dinamo Tbilisi to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 49% / 24% / 28% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.75 goals for Dinamo Tbilisi and 1.28 for Meshakhte, a combined 3.03 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
72%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
52%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.8%
- 2–19.5%
- 1–08.5%
- 2–07.4%
- 1–26.9%
Recent form
Dinamo Tbilisi
- 2026-10-11T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Dinamo Batumi · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-04T15:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Iberia 1999 · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Samgurali · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-14T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Gagra · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-10T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Meshakhte · 0-0 (D)
Meshakhte
- 2026-10-17T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Samgurali · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-10T11:30:00.000Z · H vs FC Iberia 1999 · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Gagra · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-14T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Rustavi · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-10T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Dinamo Tbilisi · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Erovnuli Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dinamo Batumi | 29 | 15 | 8 | 6 | 13 | 53 |
| 2 | Rustavi | 29 | 15 | 7 | 7 | 12 | 52 |
| 3 | FC Iberia 1999 | 29 | 16 | 4 | 9 | 11 | 52 |
| 4 | Dinamo Tbilisi | 29 | 14 | 9 | 6 | 16 | 51 |
| 5 | Dila | 29 | 12 | 4 | 13 | 4 | 40 |
| 6 | Samgurali | 29 | 11 | 5 | 13 | -9 | 38 |
| 7 | Torpedo Kutaisi | 29 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 8 | 37 |
| 8 | Gagra | 29 | 6 | 11 | 12 | -17 | 29 |
| 9 | Spaeri | 29 | 5 | 11 | 13 | -11 | 26 |
| 10 | Meshakhte | 29 | 2 | 11 | 16 | -27 | 17 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Dinamo Tbilisi win, at 48.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.
A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.