Boris Paichadze Dinamo Arena · Analysis updated 00:04 UTC
Dinamo Tbilisi vs Torpedo Kutaisi Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.75 expected goals for Dinamo Tbilisi and 1.35 for Torpedo Kutaisi, a combined total of 3.10. That distribution gives Dinamo Tbilisi the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 60% for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Dinamo Tbilisi win
46.9% probability
Expected goals
1.75 – 1.35
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Dinamo Tbilisi home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Torpedo Kutaisi away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Dinamo Tbilisi to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 47%, against 47% / 23% / 30% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.75 goals for Dinamo Tbilisi and 1.35 for Torpedo Kutaisi, a combined 3.10 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
70%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
53%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.6%
- 2–19.3%
- 1–07.9%
- 1–27.2%
- 2–06.9%
Recent form
Dinamo Tbilisi
- 2026-10-23T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Rustavi · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-18T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Spaeri · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-11T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Dinamo Batumi · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-04T15:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Iberia 1999 · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Samgurali · 3-2 (W)
Torpedo Kutaisi
- 2026-10-18T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Rustavi · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-10T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Spaeri · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-20T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Dinamo Batumi · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-14T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Samgurali · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-10T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Gagra · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Erovnuli Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dinamo Batumi | 30 | 16 | 8 | 6 | 16 | 56 |
| 2 | Dinamo Tbilisi | 30 | 15 | 9 | 6 | 18 | 54 |
| 3 | FC Iberia 1999 | 29 | 16 | 4 | 9 | 11 | 52 |
| 4 | Rustavi | 30 | 15 | 7 | 8 | 10 | 52 |
| 5 | Dila | 30 | 12 | 4 | 14 | 3 | 40 |
| 6 | Samgurali | 30 | 11 | 5 | 14 | -12 | 38 |
| 7 | Torpedo Kutaisi | 29 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 8 | 37 |
| 8 | Gagra | 30 | 6 | 12 | 12 | -17 | 30 |
| 9 | Spaeri | 30 | 5 | 12 | 13 | -11 | 27 |
| 10 | Meshakhte | 30 | 3 | 11 | 16 | -26 | 20 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Dinamo Tbilisi win, at 46.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 61% and over 2.5 goals at 60%.
A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.