Dinamo Tbilisi vs US Mondorf-les-bains Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.00 expected goals for Dinamo Tbilisi and 1.00 for US Mondorf-les-bains, a combined total of 3.00. That distribution gives Dinamo Tbilisi the largest share of the 1X2 market at 61%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 61% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Dinamo Tbilisi win

60.6% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

2.00 – 1.00

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Dinamo Tbilisi home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
US Mondorf-les-bains away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Dinamo Tbilisi to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 61%, against 61% / 21% / 18% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.00 goals for Dinamo Tbilisi and 1.00 for US Mondorf-les-bains, a combined 3.00 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Dinamo Tbilisi win61%

Draw21%

US Mondorf-les-bains win18%

Double chance 1X

82%

Double chance 12

79%

Double chance X2

40%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals80%

Over 2.5 goals58%

Over 3.5 goals35%

Both teams to score55%

Correct score

1–010.0%
1–110.0%
2–010.0%
2–110.0%
3–06.6%

Recent form

Dinamo Tbilisi

2026-10-23T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Rustavi · 2-0 (W)
2026-10-18T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Spaeri · 3-1 (W)
2026-10-11T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Dinamo Batumi · 0-1 (L)
2026-10-04T15:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Iberia 1999 · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Samgurali · 3-2 (W)

US Mondorf-les-bains

2026-10-11T14:00:00.000Z · A vs US Rumelange · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Kischpelt Wilwerwiltz · 10-1 (W)
2026-09-16T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Résidence Walferdange · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · H vs UNA Strassen · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-06T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Atert Bissen · 2-1 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

UEFA Europa Conference League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Panathinaikos	2	2	0	0	5	6
2	FC Lugano	2	2	0	0	4	6
3	Brann	2	2	0	0	4	6
4	Trabzonspor	2	2	0	0	4	6
5	Twente	2	2	0	0	4	6
6	Monaco	2	2	0	0	4	6
7	St. Truiden	2	2	0	0	3	6
8	HNK Hajduk Split	2	2	0	0	2	6
9	Brighton	2	1	1	0	4	4
10	FC Copenhagen	2	1	1	0	3	4
11	Universitatea Craiova	2	1	1	0	2	4
12	Mjallby AIF	2	1	1	0	2	4
13	Ajax	2	1	0	1	1	3
14	Borac Banja Luka	2	1	0	1	1	3
15	Atalanta	2	1	0	1	0	3
16	SC Braga	2	1	0	1	-1	3
17	Gent	2	1	0	1	-1	3
18	SC Freiburg	2	1	0	1	-2	3
19	FC Nordsjaelland	2	0	2	0	0	2
20	Egnatia Rrogozhinë	2	0	2	0	0	2
21	Riga	2	0	2	0	0	2
22	FK Crvena Zvezda	2	0	1	1	-1	1
23	CSKA Sofia	2	0	1	1	-1	1
24	FK Jablonec	2	0	1	1	-1	1
25	FC Midtjylland	2	0	1	1	-1	1
26	Aarhus	2	0	1	1	-1	1
27	Pafos	2	0	1	1	-2	1
28	Heart Of Midlothian	2	0	1	1	-2	1
29	FC Iberia 1999	2	0	1	1	-2	1
30	Getafe	2	0	1	1	-3	1
31	Kairat Almaty	2	0	1	1	-4	1
32	FC Thun	2	0	0	2	-2	0
33	Lincoln Red Imps FC	2	0	0	2	-4	0
34	KuPS	2	0	0	2	-4	0
35	Inter Club d'Escaldes	2	0	0	2	-4	0
36	Kauno Žalgiris	2	0	0	2	-7	0

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Dinamo Tbilisi win, at 60.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.

A 61% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.