Elbasan Arena · Analysis updated 03:44 UTC
Dinamo Tirana vs AF Elbasani Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.75 expected goals for Dinamo Tirana and 0.75 for AF Elbasani, a combined total of 1.50. That distribution gives Dinamo Tirana the largest share of the 1X2 market at 32%, with the draw at 37%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 19% for over 2.5 goals and 28% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 22%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 32% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
68.3% probability
Expected goals
0.75 – 0.75
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Dinamo Tirana home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
AF Elbasani away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
68%
Double chance 12
63%
Double chance X2
68%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–022.3%
- 0–116.7%
- 1–016.7%
- 1–112.6%
- 0–26.3%
Recent form
Dinamo Tirana
- 2026-10-25T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Egnatia Rrogozhinë · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-16T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Teuta Durrës · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-11T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Vllaznia Shkodër · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Otrant-Olympic · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Laci · 3-1 (W)
AF Elbasani
- 2026-10-24T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Teuta Durrës · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Skenderbeu Korce · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-10T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Vora · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Tirana · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-13T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Egnatia Rrogozhinë · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-06T16:30:00.000Z · Dinamo Tirana 2-1 AF Elbasani (Superliga)
- 2026-05-24T17:00:00.000Z · Dinamo Tirana 0-3 AF Elbasani (Superliga)
- 2026-04-04T18:00:00.000Z · Dinamo Tirana 4-1 AF Elbasani (Superliga)
- 2026-01-25T15:30:00.000Z · Dinamo Tirana 0-2 AF Elbasani (Superliga)
- 2025-11-22T18:00:00.000Z · Dinamo Tirana 1-1 AF Elbasani (Superliga)
- 2025-09-14T17:00:00.000Z · Dinamo Tirana 0-1 AF Elbasani (Superliga)
- 2025-03-16T17:00:00.000Z · Dinamo Tirana 1-1 AF Elbasani (Superliga)
- 2025-01-19T18:30:00.000Z · Dinamo Tirana 3-1 AF Elbasani (Superliga)
- 2024-11-04T17:00:00.000Z · Dinamo Tirana 5-0 AF Elbasani (Superliga)
- 2024-09-01T18:00:00.000Z · Dinamo Tirana 2-1 AF Elbasani (Superliga)
Superliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Teuta Durrës | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 12 | 20 |
| 2 | Egnatia Rrogozhinë | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 18 |
| 3 | Dinamo Tirana | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 15 |
| 4 | Tirana | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 5 | Laci | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 10 |
| 6 | Skenderbeu Korce | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 9 |
| 7 | AF Elbasani | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | -1 | 8 |
| 8 | Vllaznia Shkodër | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 8 |
| 9 | Vora | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 8 |
| 10 | Partizani | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -10 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 68.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 28% and over 2.5 goals at 19%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.