Elbasan Arena · Analysis updated 14:41 UTC
Dinamo Tirana vs Teuta Durrës Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.10 expected goals for Dinamo Tirana and 1.43 for Teuta Durrës, a combined total of 2.53. That distribution gives Teuta Durrës the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 46% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
70.9% probability
Expected goals
1.10 – 1.43
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Dinamo Tirana home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Teuta Durrës away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Teuta Durrës to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 29% / 26% / 45% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.10 goals for Dinamo Tirana and 1.43 for Teuta Durrës, a combined 2.53 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
56%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
71%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.5%
- 0–111.4%
- 1–28.9%
- 1–08.8%
- 0–28.1%
Recent form
Dinamo Tirana
- 2026-10-16T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Teuta Durrës · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-11T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Vllaznia Shkodër · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Otrant-Olympic · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Laci · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Partizani · 4-2 (W)
Teuta Durrës
- 2026-10-24T16:30:00.000Z · H vs AF Elbasani · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-16T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Dinamo Tirana · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-10T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Skenderbeu Korce · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-02T16:00:00.000Z · H vs FK Kukesi · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-09-18T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Vllaznia Shkodër · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Superliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Teuta Durrës | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 12 | 20 |
| 2 | Egnatia Rrogozhinë | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 18 |
| 3 | Dinamo Tirana | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 12 |
| 4 | Tirana | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 5 | Laci | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 10 |
| 6 | Skenderbeu Korce | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 9 |
| 7 | AF Elbasani | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | -1 | 8 |
| 8 | Vllaznia Shkodër | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 8 |
| 9 | Vora | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 8 |
| 10 | Partizani | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -10 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 70.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 46%.
A 71% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.