Elbasan Arena · Analysis updated 16:59 UTC
Dinamo Tirana vs Vora Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.79 expected goals for Dinamo Tirana and 1.03 for Vora, a combined total of 2.82. That distribution gives Dinamo Tirana the largest share of the 1X2 market at 55%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 53% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 55% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Dinamo Tirana win
55.3% probability
Expected goals
1.79 – 1.03
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Dinamo Tirana home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Vora away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Dinamo Tirana to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 55%, against 55% / 23% / 22% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.79 goals for Dinamo Tirana and 1.03 for Vora, a combined 2.82 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
79%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
45%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.0%
- 1–010.7%
- 2–19.8%
- 2–09.6%
- 0–16.1%
Recent form
Dinamo Tirana
- 2026-10-16T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Teuta Durrës · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-11T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Vllaznia Shkodër · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Otrant-Olympic · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Laci · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Partizani · 4-2 (W)
Vora
- 2026-10-10T16:30:00.000Z · A vs AF Elbasani · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Korabi Peshkopi · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Skenderbeu Korce · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Teuta Durrës · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-06T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Tirana · 0-4 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Superliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Teuta Durrës | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 19 |
| 2 | Egnatia Rrogozhinë | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 18 |
| 3 | Dinamo Tirana | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 12 |
| 4 | Tirana | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| 5 | Vora | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -4 | 8 |
| 6 | AF Elbasani | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | -1 | 7 |
| 7 | Laci | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 7 |
| 8 | Skenderbeu Korce | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 6 |
| 9 | Vllaznia Shkodër | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -6 | 5 |
| 10 | Partizani | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -8 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Dinamo Tirana win, at 55.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 53%.
A 55% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.