Dinamo · Analysis updated 13:10 UTC
Dinamo Vologda vs Chertanovo Moscow Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.33 expected goals for Dinamo Vologda and 1.63 for Chertanovo Moscow, a combined total of 2.95. That distribution gives Chertanovo Moscow the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 57% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
68.7% probability
Expected goals
1.33 – 1.63
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Dinamo Vologda home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Chertanovo Moscow away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Chertanovo Moscow to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 31% / 24% / 45% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.33 goals for Dinamo Vologda and 1.63 for Chertanovo Moscow, a combined 2.95 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
56%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
69%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.3%
- 1–29.2%
- 0–18.5%
- 2–17.5%
- 1–06.9%
Recent form
Dinamo Vologda
- 2026-09-17T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Spartak Moscow 2 · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-13T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Tver · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-06T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Iskra Smolensk · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-08-30T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Murom · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-27T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Dinamo St. Petersburg · 1-1 (D)
Chertanovo Moscow
- 2026-10-25T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Irkutsk · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-18T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Dinamo Vologda · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-14T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Tekstilshchik · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-11T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Baltika II · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-04T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Yenisey II · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Second League - Group 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Murom | 21 | 14 | 2 | 5 | 18 | 44 |
| 2 | Dinamo St. Petersburg | 20 | 12 | 6 | 2 | 22 | 42 |
| 3 | Luki-Energiya | 21 | 12 | 6 | 3 | 18 | 42 |
| 4 | Baltika II | 21 | 12 | 4 | 5 | 19 | 40 |
| 5 | Chertanovo Moscow | 21 | 11 | 6 | 4 | 21 | 39 |
| 6 | Torpedo Vladimir | 20 | 9 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 32 |
| 7 | Kosmos Dolgoprudny | 21 | 8 | 4 | 9 | -6 | 28 |
| 8 | Tver | 21 | 7 | 3 | 11 | -6 | 24 |
| 9 | Cherepovets | 20 | 7 | 3 | 10 | -11 | 24 |
| 10 | Zvezda St. Petersburg | 20 | 5 | 9 | 6 | 0 | 24 |
| 11 | Dinamo Vologda | 20 | 6 | 5 | 9 | 3 | 23 |
| 12 | Spartak Moscow 2 | 21 | 6 | 5 | 10 | -6 | 23 |
| 13 | Yenisey II | 21 | 5 | 4 | 12 | -17 | 19 |
| 14 | Iskra Smolensk | 21 | 3 | 6 | 12 | -25 | 15 |
| 15 | Irkutsk | 21 | 3 | 2 | 16 | -35 | 11 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 68.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 57%.
A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.