· Analysis updated 17:29 UTC
Dinamo Vologda vs Tver Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.44 expected goals for Dinamo Vologda and 1.10 for Tver, a combined total of 2.54. That distribution gives Dinamo Vologda the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 47% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
71.0% probability
Expected goals
1.44 – 1.10
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Dinamo Vologda home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Tver away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Dinamo Vologda to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 45% / 26% / 29% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.44 goals for Dinamo Vologda and 1.10 for Tver, a combined 2.54 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
71%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
55%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.5%
- 1–011.3%
- 2–19.0%
- 0–18.7%
- 2–08.1%
Recent form
Dinamo Vologda
- 2026-09-17T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Spartak Moscow 2 · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-13T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Tver · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-06T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Iskra Smolensk · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-08-30T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Murom · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-27T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Dinamo St. Petersburg · 1-1 (D)
Tver
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Irkutsk · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-13T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Dinamo Vologda · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Baltika II · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-30T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Yenisey II · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-23T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Chertanovo Moscow · 0-4 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 71.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 47%.
A 71% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.