EBB Stadium at Recreation Ground · Analysis updated 07:53 UTC
Dinamo Zagreb U21 vs Valencia U21 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.40 expected goals for Dinamo Zagreb U21 and 1.40 for Valencia U21, a combined total of 2.80. That distribution gives Dinamo Zagreb U21 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 37%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 53% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 37% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
62.7% probability
Expected goals
1.40 – 1.40
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Dinamo Zagreb U21 home form
3 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Dinamo Zagreb U21 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 37%, against 37% / 25% / 37% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.40 goals for Dinamo Zagreb U21 and 1.40 for Valencia U21, a combined 2.80 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 53% and both teams to score at 57%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
63%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
63%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.9%
- 0–18.5%
- 1–08.5%
- 1–28.3%
- 2–18.3%
Recent form
Dinamo Zagreb U21
- 2026-10-16T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Karlovac 1919 · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-11T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Segesta Sisak · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-25T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Mladost Ždralovi · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Dugopolje · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-15T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Tottenham Hotspur U21 · 1-3 (L)
Valencia U21
Head-to-head
- 2026-04-15T18:00:00.000Z · Dinamo Zagreb U21 4-3 Valencia U21 (Premier League International Cup)
Premier League International Cup table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Anderlecht U21 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 |
| 2 | Borussia M'gladbach II | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
| 3 | Middlesbrough U21 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 4 | Monaco U21 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 |
| 5 | Brondby U21 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 |
| 6 | Borussia Dortmund II | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 7 | Sporting CP B | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 8 | Tottenham Hotspur U21 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 9 | Nordsjælland U21 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 10 | Brighton U21 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 11 | Milan II | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 12 | Aston Villa U21 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 13 | Real Sociedad II | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 14 | Crystal Palace U21 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 3 |
| 15 | West Ham United U21 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 3 |
| 16 | Genk U21 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 17 | Jong PSV U21 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 18 | Southampton U21 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 19 | Sunderland U21 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 20 | Everton U21 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 21 | Juventus U21 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 22 | Ipswich Town U21 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 23 | Nottingham Forest U21 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 24 | Paris Saint-Germain U21 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
| 25 | Dinamo Zagreb U21 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 26 | Valencia U21 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 27 | Fulham U21 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
| 28 | Leicester City U21 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -4 | 0 |
| 29 | Stoke City U21 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 62.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 53%.
A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.