Stadion Maksimir · Referee Orel Grinfeld · Analysis updated 16:03 UTC
Dinamo Zagreb vs Anderlecht Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.42 expected goals for Dinamo Zagreb and 0.98 for Anderlecht, a combined total of 2.40. That distribution gives Dinamo Zagreb the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 43% for over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Dinamo Zagreb win
47.2% probability
Expected goals
1.42 – 0.98
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Dinamo Zagreb home form
9 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Anderlecht away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Dinamo Zagreb to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 47%, against 47% / 27% / 26% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.42 goals for Dinamo Zagreb and 0.98 for Anderlecht, a combined 2.40 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
74%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
53%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–012.9%
- 1–112.6%
- 2–09.1%
- 0–09.1%
- 2–19.0%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 7.1%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.25 (model 52.6% vs market 42.3%, edge +10.3 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.25 | 42.3% | 52.6% | 1.90 | +10.3 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.83 | 51.7% | 52.8% | 1.89 | +1.1 |
| Match result | Home | 2.00 | 46.7% | 47.2% | 2.12 | +0.5 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.30 | 72.7% | 73.2% | 1.37 | +0.5 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.50 | 26.7% | 26.8% | 3.73 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Away | 3.50 | 26.7% | 26.0% | 3.85 | -0.7 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.25 | 75.6% | 74.0% | 1.35 | -1.6 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.65 | 57.7% | 47.4% | 2.11 | -10.3 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Dinamo Zagreb
- 2026-10-15T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Anderlecht · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · A vs HNK Hajduk Split · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-04T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Vukovar · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T18:00:00.000Z · H vs NK Lokomotiva Zagreb · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-16T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Hapoel Beer Sheva · 0-0 (D)
Anderlecht
- 2026-10-15T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Dinamo Zagreb · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Cercle Brugge · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-02T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Reims · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Zulte Waregem · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-16T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Lyon · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2018-12-13T20:00:00.000Z · Dinamo Zagreb 0-0 Anderlecht (UEFA Europa League)
- 2018-10-04T16:55:00.000Z · Dinamo Zagreb 2-0 Anderlecht (UEFA Europa League)
UEFA Europa League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Juventus | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 6 |
| 2 | Bayer Leverkusen | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 6 |
| 3 | Benfica | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 6 |
| 4 | Beşiktaş | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 |
| 5 | Bournemouth | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 |
| 6 | Omonia Nicosia | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 |
| 7 | Ferencvarosi TC | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 |
| 8 | Lyon | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 9 | Sunderland | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 10 | Olympiakos Piraeus | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 11 | Sparta Praha | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 |
| 12 | Union St. Gilloise | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 |
| 13 | Rennes | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 14 | Dinamo Zagreb | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 15 | Crystal Palace | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 |
| 16 | AC Milan | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| 17 | Jagiellonia | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 18 | OFI | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 19 | Torreense | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 20 | AZ Alkmaar | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 21 | Red Bull Salzburg | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 3 |
| 22 | Real Sociedad | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 23 | Lillestrom | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 24 | Levski Sofia | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 25 | Hapoel Beer Sheva | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 26 | Sturm Graz | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -3 | 1 |
| 27 | NEC Nijmegen | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -5 | 1 |
| 28 | Celta Vigo | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
| 29 | Anderlecht | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
| 30 | 1899 Hoffenheim | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 0 |
| 31 | Plzen | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 0 |
| 32 | Marseille | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 0 |
| 33 | Celtic | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -5 | 0 |
| 34 | Ararat-Armenia | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -5 | 0 |
| 35 | Celje | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -5 | 0 |
| 36 | Lech Poznan | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -8 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Dinamo Zagreb win, at 47.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 47% and over 2.5 goals at 43%.
A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.