Stadion Maksimir · Analysis updated 19:09 UTC
Dinamo Zagreb vs HNK Rijeka Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.59 expected goals for Dinamo Zagreb and 0.86 for HNK Rijeka, a combined total of 2.45. That distribution gives Dinamo Zagreb the largest share of the 1X2 market at 55%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 44% for over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 55% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Dinamo Zagreb win
54.6% probability
Expected goals
1.59 – 0.86
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Dinamo Zagreb home form
9 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
HNK Rijeka away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
80%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
45%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–013.7%
- 1–111.8%
- 2–010.9%
- 2–19.4%
- 0–08.6%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 9.4%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.00 (model 54.1% vs market 46.4%, edge +7.7 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.00 | 46.4% | 54.1% | 1.85 | +7.7 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 2.10 | 44.8% | 45.4% | 2.20 | +0.6 |
| Match result | Away | 4.60 | 19.9% | 20.3% | 4.93 | +0.4 |
| Match result | Home | 1.67 | 54.7% | 54.6% | 1.83 | -0.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.18 | 79.8% | 79.7% | 1.25 | -0.1 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.60 | 25.4% | 25.1% | 3.98 | -0.3 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.25 | 75.3% | 74.9% | 1.34 | -0.4 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.73 | 53.6% | 45.9% | 2.18 | -7.7 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Dinamo Zagreb
- 2026-10-15T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Anderlecht · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · A vs HNK Hajduk Split · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-04T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Vukovar · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T18:00:00.000Z · H vs NK Lokomotiva Zagreb · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-16T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Hapoel Beer Sheva · 0-0 (D)
HNK Rijeka
- 2026-10-20T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Karlovac 1919 · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-10-16T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Rudes · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-11T16:00:00.000Z · A vs NK Slaven Belupo · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-26T17:15:00.000Z · H vs Union Berlin · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · H vs HNK Hajduk Split · 3-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-05-13T16:00:00.000Z · Dinamo Zagreb 2-0 HNK Rijeka (Cup)
- 2026-04-18T14:00:00.000Z · Dinamo Zagreb 2-2 HNK Rijeka (HNL)
- 2026-02-08T16:45:00.000Z · Dinamo Zagreb 0-0 HNK Rijeka (HNL)
- 2025-11-01T15:00:00.000Z · Dinamo Zagreb 2-1 HNK Rijeka (HNL)
- 2025-08-16T19:00:00.000Z · Dinamo Zagreb 2-0 HNK Rijeka (HNL)
- 2025-04-27T16:45:00.000Z · Dinamo Zagreb 1-0 HNK Rijeka (HNL)
- 2025-02-22T16:45:00.000Z · Dinamo Zagreb 0-4 HNK Rijeka (HNL)
- 2024-11-23T16:45:00.000Z · Dinamo Zagreb 0-0 HNK Rijeka (HNL)
- 2024-09-01T18:45:00.000Z · Dinamo Zagreb 1-1 HNK Rijeka (HNL)
- 2024-05-22T16:00:00.000Z · Dinamo Zagreb 3-1 HNK Rijeka (Cup)
HNL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | HNK Hajduk Split | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 22 |
| 2 | Dinamo Zagreb | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 19 |
| 3 | NK Varazdin | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 18 |
| 4 | NK Osijek | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 17 |
| 5 | HNK Rijeka | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 17 |
| 6 | NK Slaven Belupo | 11 | 4 | 1 | 6 | -9 | 13 |
| 7 | Istra 1961 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 12 |
| 8 | NK Lokomotiva Zagreb | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -4 | 11 |
| 9 | HNK Gorica | 11 | 1 | 4 | 6 | -8 | 7 |
| 10 | Rudes | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | -14 | 7 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Dinamo Zagreb win, at 54.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 46% and over 2.5 goals at 44%.
A 55% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.