Stade du Clos Gastel · Analysis updated 10:33 UTC
Dinan Léhon vs Bordeaux Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.18 expected goals for Dinan Léhon and 1.53 for Bordeaux, a combined total of 2.70. That distribution gives Bordeaux the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 51% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Bordeaux win
45.3% probability
Expected goals
1.18 – 1.53
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Dinan Léhon home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Bordeaux away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Bordeaux to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 29% / 25% / 45% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.18 goals for Dinan Léhon and 1.53 for Bordeaux, a combined 2.70 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
55%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
71%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.0%
- 0–110.2%
- 1–29.2%
- 1–07.9%
- 0–27.8%
Recent form
Dinan Léhon
- 2026-10-17T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Bayonne · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-03T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Tarbes · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Chauray · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Avranches · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-05T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Saint-Colomban Locminé · 1-0 (W)
Bordeaux
- 2026-05-16T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Avranches · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-05-09T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Les Herbiers · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-05-02T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Bayonne · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-04-25T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Montlouis · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-04-18T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Dinan Léhon · 3-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
National 2 - Group A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | St Maur Lusitanos | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 15 |
| 2 | Chambly Thelle FC | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 15 |
| 3 | Creteil | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 14 |
| 4 | Racing Colombes 92 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 14 |
| 5 | Furiani-Agliani | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 14 |
| 6 | Feignies-Aulnoye | 7 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 13 |
| 7 | Biesheim | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 11 |
| 8 | Dieppe | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 9 |
| 9 | Le Pays du Valois | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 8 |
| 10 | Bastia-Borgo | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 8 |
| 11 | Haguenau | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 7 |
| 12 | Montlouis | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -6 | 6 |
| 13 | Epinal | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 5 |
| 14 | Colmar | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -8 | 5 |
| 15 | St-Pryvé St-Hilaire | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 3 |
| 16 | Chantilly | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | -15 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Bordeaux win, at 45.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 51%.
A 45% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.