Stade du Clos Gastel · Analysis updated 16:32 UTC
Dinan Léhon vs Saumur Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.63 expected goals for Dinan Léhon and 1.38 for Saumur, a combined total of 3.00. That distribution gives Dinan Léhon the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
67.5% probability
Expected goals
1.63 – 1.38
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Dinan Léhon home form
12 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Saumur away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Dinan Léhon to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 43% / 24% / 33% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.63 goals for Dinan Léhon and 1.38 for Saumur, a combined 3.00 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
68%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
57%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.1%
- 2–19.0%
- 1–08.1%
- 1–27.6%
- 0–16.8%
Recent form
Dinan Léhon
- 2026-10-03T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Tarbes · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Chauray · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Avranches · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-05T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Saint-Colomban Locminé · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-29T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Les Herbiers · 2-0 (W)
Saumur
- 2026-10-17T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Granville · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-03T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Saint-Malo · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Stade Briochin · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Le Poiré sur Vie · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Pontivy GSI · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-05-02T16:00:00.000Z · Dinan Léhon 6-0 Saumur (National 2 - Group A)
- 2026-01-31T17:00:00.000Z · Dinan Léhon 2-2 Saumur (National 2 - Group A)
- 2025-02-15T17:00:00.000Z · Dinan Léhon 2-4 Saumur (National 2 - Group B)
- 2024-09-14T16:00:00.000Z · Dinan Léhon 1-1 Saumur (National 2 - Group B)
National 2 - Group A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | St Maur Lusitanos | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 15 |
| 2 | Chambly Thelle FC | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 15 |
| 3 | Creteil | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 14 |
| 4 | Racing Colombes 92 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 14 |
| 5 | Furiani-Agliani | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 14 |
| 6 | Feignies-Aulnoye | 7 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 13 |
| 7 | Biesheim | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 11 |
| 8 | Dieppe | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 9 |
| 9 | Le Pays du Valois | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 8 |
| 10 | Bastia-Borgo | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 8 |
| 11 | Haguenau | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 7 |
| 12 | Montlouis | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -6 | 6 |
| 13 | Epinal | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 5 |
| 14 | Colmar | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -8 | 5 |
| 15 | St-Pryvé St-Hilaire | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 3 |
| 16 | Chantilly | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | -15 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 67.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.