Diocesano vs Villafranca Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Diocesano vs Villafranca in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 14: no fixture-specific data has reached us for this match yet, so the figures below are a competition-average baseline with standard home advantage — not a rated model prediction on these two teams. They are excluded from our featured picks, accumulators and value selections, and will be replaced automatically once team and market data arrives.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

69.8% probability

Baseline estimate10/100

Expected goals

1.48 – 1.18

Model version

poisson-baseline-v1

No fixture-specific data was available. These numbers are a competition-average prior with standard home advantage — not a model opinion on these two teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Villafranca away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 8 meetings.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Diocesano to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 44% / 26% / 30% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.48 goals for Diocesano and 1.18 for Villafranca, a combined 2.66 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Diocesano win44%

Draw26%

Villafranca win30%

Double chance 1X

70%

Double chance 12

74%

Double chance X2

56%

Correct score

1–112.2%
1–010.4%
2–19.0%
0–18.3%
2–07.7%

Recent form

Diocesano

Villafranca

2026-10-18T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Gévora · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-09T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Santa Amalia · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-27T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Jaraíz · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-20T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Villanovense · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-12T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Guadiana · 2-0 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-05-10T16:00:00.000Z · Diocesano 4-4 Villafranca (Tercera División RFEF - Group 14)
2026-01-11T11:30:00.000Z · Diocesano 0-1 Villafranca (Tercera División RFEF - Group 14)
2025-02-23T11:00:00.000Z · Diocesano 0-1 Villafranca (Tercera División RFEF - Group 14)
2024-10-13T10:30:00.000Z · Diocesano 2-2 Villafranca (Tercera División RFEF - Group 14)
2024-03-10T11:30:00.000Z · Diocesano 1-3 Villafranca (Tercera División RFEF - Group 14)
2023-10-22T15:00:00.000Z · Diocesano 2-3 Villafranca (Tercera División RFEF - Group 14)
2022-04-24T10:00:00.000Z · Diocesano 1-1 Villafranca (Tercera División RFEF - Group 14)
2021-12-18T15:00:00.000Z · Diocesano 3-1 Villafranca (Tercera División RFEF - Group 14)

Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Azuaga	8	7	0	1	12	21
2	Llerenense	8	6	2	0	8	20
3	Moralo	8	5	3	0	7	18
4	Villanovense	8	5	1	2	9	16
5	Castuera	8	4	2	2	9	14
6	Puebla Calzada	8	3	2	3	2	11
7	Gévora	8	3	2	3	-1	11
8	Jerez	8	3	2	3	-2	11
9	Cabeza Buey	8	2	4	2	1	10
10	Villafranca	8	3	1	4	-1	10
11	CD Zafra	8	2	3	3	0	9
12	Quintana	8	2	3	3	-1	9
13	Jaraíz	8	2	2	4	0	8
14	Santa Amalia	8	1	5	2	-2	8
15	Montijo	8	2	2	4	-4	8
16	Plasencia	8	1	4	3	-5	7
17	Atlético Pueblonuevo	8	0	3	5	-14	3
18	Guadiana	8	0	1	7	-18	1

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 69.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.