DVTK Edzőcentrum Füves Edzőpálya · Analysis updated 07:53 UTC
Diósgyőr II vs FC Hatvan Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.92 expected goals for Diósgyőr II and 1.70 for FC Hatvan, a combined total of 3.63. That distribution gives Diósgyőr II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 70% for over 2.5 goals and 70% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
65.4% probability
Expected goals
1.92 – 1.70
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Diósgyőr II home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
FC Hatvan away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Diósgyőr II to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 44% / 22% / 35% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.92 goals for Diósgyőr II and 1.70 for FC Hatvan, a combined 3.63 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
65%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
56%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–18.7%
- 2–18.4%
- 1–27.4%
- 2–27.1%
- 3–15.4%
Recent form
Diósgyőr II
- 2026-10-11T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Ózd Sajóvölgye · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-03T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Eger · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-26T09:00:00.000Z · H vs DEAC · 5-2 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Füzesabony · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Salgótarjáni BTC · 1-0 (W)
FC Hatvan
- 2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Kaposvar · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-08-22T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Mezőcsát · 5-3 (W)
- 2026-05-24T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Diósgyőr II · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-05-17T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Putnok VSE · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-05-10T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Eger · 2-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
NB III - Northeast table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ózd Sajóvölgye | 13 | 11 | 0 | 2 | 31 | 33 |
| 2 | Cigand SE | 13 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 25 | 32 |
| 3 | DEAC | 13 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 14 | 26 |
| 4 | Debrecen II | 13 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 25 |
| 5 | Gödöllő | 13 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 8 | 22 |
| 6 | Kisvárda II | 13 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 21 |
| 7 | Mátészalka | 13 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 20 |
| 8 | Diósgyőr II | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 19 |
| 9 | Tiszaújváros | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | -3 | 17 |
| 10 | Füzesabony | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | -3 | 17 |
| 11 | Eger | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | -12 | 17 |
| 12 | Hajdúnánás | 13 | 4 | 1 | 8 | -17 | 13 |
| 13 | Salgótarjáni BTC | 13 | 4 | 0 | 9 | -11 | 12 |
| 14 | Tiszafuredi VSE | 13 | 3 | 1 | 9 | -13 | 10 |
| 15 | Tarpa | 13 | 3 | 0 | 10 | -20 | 9 |
| 16 | Nyiregyhaza II | 13 | 1 | 1 | 11 | -24 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 65.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 70% and over 2.5 goals at 70%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.