· Analysis updated 13:45 UTC
Diósgyőr II vs Gödöllő Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.63 expected goals for Diósgyőr II and 1.24 for Gödöllő, a combined total of 2.87. That distribution gives Diósgyőr II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 55% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Diósgyőr II win
46.3% probability
Expected goals
1.63 – 1.24
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Diósgyőr II home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Gödöllő away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Diósgyőr II to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 46% / 24% / 29% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.63 goals for Diósgyőr II and 1.24 for Gödöllő, a combined 2.87 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
71%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
54%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.5%
- 2–19.3%
- 1–09.2%
- 2–07.5%
- 1–27.1%
Recent form
Diósgyőr II
- 2026-10-11T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Ózd Sajóvölgye · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-03T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Eger · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-26T09:00:00.000Z · H vs DEAC · 5-2 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Füzesabony · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Salgótarjáni BTC · 1-0 (W)
Gödöllő
- 2026-10-03T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Cigand SE · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Tiszaújváros · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Ózd Sajóvölgye · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Debreceni VSC · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Eger · 4-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
NB III - Northeast table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ózd Sajóvölgye | 10 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 24 | 24 |
| 2 | Cigand SE | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 15 | 23 |
| 3 | DEAC | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 20 |
| 4 | Kisvárda II | 10 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 17 |
| 5 | Debrecen II | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 16 |
| 6 | Diósgyőr II | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 16 |
| 7 | Mátészalka | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 16 |
| 8 | Gödöllő | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 16 |
| 9 | Eger | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | -9 | 16 |
| 10 | Füzesabony | 10 | 5 | 0 | 5 | -1 | 15 |
| 11 | Tiszaújváros | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | -1 | 13 |
| 12 | Hajdúnánás | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | -10 | 10 |
| 13 | Salgótarjáni BTC | 10 | 3 | 0 | 7 | -8 | 9 |
| 14 | Tiszafuredi VSE | 10 | 3 | 0 | 7 | -9 | 9 |
| 15 | Tarpa | 10 | 2 | 0 | 8 | -14 | 6 |
| 16 | Nyiregyhaza II | 10 | 1 | 0 | 9 | -16 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Diósgyőr II win, at 46.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 55%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.