· Analysis updated 13:24 UTC
Diósgyőr II vs Tarpa Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.45 expected goals for Diósgyőr II and 0.90 for Tarpa, a combined total of 3.35. That distribution gives Diósgyőr II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 71%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 65% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 71% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Diósgyőr II win
71.4% probability
Expected goals
2.45 – 0.90
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Diósgyőr II home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Tarpa away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Diósgyőr II to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 71%, against 71% / 17% / 12% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.45 goals for Diósgyőr II and 0.90 for Tarpa, a combined 3.35 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
88%
Double chance 12
83%
Double chance X2
29%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–010.5%
- 2–19.5%
- 3–08.6%
- 1–08.6%
- 3–17.7%
Recent form
Diósgyőr II
- 2026-10-11T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Ózd Sajóvölgye · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-03T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Eger · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-26T09:00:00.000Z · H vs DEAC · 5-2 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Füzesabony · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Salgótarjáni BTC · 1-0 (W)
Tarpa
- 2026-10-11T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Kisvárda II · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-03T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Debrecen II · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-26T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Nyiregyhaza II · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Salgótarjáni BTC · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-06T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Tiszafuredi VSE · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
NB III - Northeast table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ózd Sajóvölgye | 11 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 26 | 27 |
| 2 | Cigand SE | 11 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 16 | 26 |
| 3 | DEAC | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 15 | 23 |
| 4 | Kisvárda II | 11 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 7 | 20 |
| 5 | Debrecen II | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 19 |
| 6 | Gödöllő | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 19 |
| 7 | Eger | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | -9 | 17 |
| 8 | Diósgyőr II | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 16 |
| 9 | Mátészalka | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 16 |
| 10 | Tiszaújváros | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 16 |
| 11 | Füzesabony | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | -1 | 16 |
| 12 | Hajdúnánás | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | -12 | 10 |
| 13 | Salgótarjáni BTC | 11 | 3 | 0 | 8 | -11 | 9 |
| 14 | Tiszafuredi VSE | 11 | 3 | 0 | 8 | -12 | 9 |
| 15 | Tarpa | 11 | 2 | 0 | 9 | -17 | 6 |
| 16 | Nyiregyhaza II | 11 | 1 | 0 | 10 | -20 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Diósgyőr II win, at 71.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 65%.
A 71% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.