Diyala Stadium · Analysis updated 14:49 UTC
Diyala vs Al-Karma Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.16 expected goals for Diyala and 1.81 for Al-Karma, a combined total of 2.97. That distribution gives Al-Karma the largest share of the 1X2 market at 52%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 57% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 52% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Al-Karma win
52.4% probability
Expected goals
1.16 – 1.81
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Diyala home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Al-Karma away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Al-Karma to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 52%, against 25% / 23% / 52% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.16 goals for Diyala and 1.81 for Al-Karma, a combined 2.97 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
48%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
76%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.8%
- 1–29.7%
- 0–19.3%
- 0–28.4%
- 2–16.3%
Recent form
Diyala
- 2026-09-19T15:45:00.000Z · A vs Al Quwa Al Jawiya · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Gharraf · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-08T15:45:00.000Z · A vs Erbil · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-03T15:45:00.000Z · H vs Al-Karma · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-29T15:45:00.000Z · H vs Al-Jolan SC · 3-3 (D)
Al-Karma
- 2026-10-17T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Al Quwa Al Jawiya · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-10T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Al Karkh · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-19T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Zakho · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-14T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Erbil · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-09T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Naft · 3-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Iraqi League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al-Karma | 10 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 10 | 24 |
| 2 | Newroz | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 12 | 21 |
| 3 | Naft | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 21 |
| 4 | Al Zawra'a | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 18 |
| 5 | Erbil | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 18 |
| 6 | Al Shorta | 10 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 17 |
| 7 | Al-Jolan SC | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 14 |
| 8 | Al Quwa Al Jawiya | 10 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 12 |
| 9 | Duhok | 10 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 12 |
| 10 | Diyala | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 12 |
| 11 | Al Minaa Basra | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -2 | 12 |
| 12 | Ghaz Al Shamal | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | -2 | 11 |
| 13 | Al Talaba | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | -4 | 11 |
| 14 | Mosul | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -5 | 11 |
| 15 | Zakho | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -7 | 9 |
| 16 | Gharraf | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -7 | 9 |
| 17 | Al Karkh | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -5 | 8 |
| 18 | Al Kahrabaa | 10 | 1 | 5 | 4 | -5 | 8 |
| 19 | Naft Maysan | 10 | 1 | 5 | 4 | -7 | 8 |
| 20 | Karbala | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | -10 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Al-Karma win, at 52.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 57%.
A 52% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.