Diyala vs Al Talaba Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.81 expected goals for Diyala and 1.24 for Al Talaba, a combined total of 3.05. That distribution gives Diyala the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 59% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Diyala win

50.8% probability

Low confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.81 – 1.24

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Diyala home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Al Talaba away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 2 of the last 5 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Diyala win51%

Draw23%

Al Talaba win26%

Double chance 1X

74%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

49%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals81%

Over 2.5 goals59%

Over 3.5 goals36%

Both teams to score59%

Correct score

1–110.6%
2–19.6%
1–08.6%
2–07.8%
1–26.6%

Recent form

Diyala

2026-09-19T15:45:00.000Z · A vs Al Quwa Al Jawiya · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-12T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Gharraf · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-08T15:45:00.000Z · A vs Erbil · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-03T15:45:00.000Z · H vs Al-Karma · 1-2 (L)
2026-08-29T15:45:00.000Z · H vs Al-Jolan SC · 3-3 (D)

Al Talaba

2026-10-08T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Al Shorta · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-18T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Al-Jolan SC · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-13T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Naft Maysan · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-09T15:45:00.000Z · H vs Al Karkh · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-05T15:45:00.000Z · A vs Zakho · 0-0 (D)

Head-to-head

2026-08-15T15:30:00.000Z · Diyala 2-1 Al Talaba (Iraqi League)
2026-05-01T14:00:00.000Z · Diyala 0-1 Al Talaba (Iraqi League)
2026-01-27T16:30:00.000Z · Diyala 1-1 Al Talaba (Iraqi League)
2025-02-14T11:00:00.000Z · Diyala 0-0 Al Talaba (Iraqi League)
2024-12-12T14:00:00.000Z · Diyala 0-1 Al Talaba (Iraqi League)

Iraqi League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Al-Karma	10	7	3	0	10	24
2	Newroz	10	6	3	1	12	21
3	Naft	10	6	3	1	8	21
4	Al Zawra'a	10	5	3	2	8	18
5	Erbil	10	5	3	2	8	18
6	Al Shorta	10	4	5	1	5	17
7	Al-Jolan SC	10	3	5	2	1	14
8	Al Quwa Al Jawiya	10	2	6	2	2	12
9	Duhok	10	2	6	2	1	12
10	Diyala	10	3	3	4	-1	12
11	Al Minaa Basra	10	3	3	4	-2	12
12	Ghaz Al Shamal	10	2	5	3	-2	11
13	Al Talaba	10	2	5	3	-4	11
14	Mosul	10	3	2	5	-5	11
15	Zakho	10	2	3	5	-7	9
16	Gharraf	10	2	3	5	-7	9
17	Al Karkh	10	2	2	6	-3	8
18	Al Kahrabaa	10	1	5	4	-5	8
19	Naft Maysan	10	1	5	4	-7	8
20	Karbala	10	1	3	6	-10	6

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Diyala win, at 50.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 59%.

A 51% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.