· Analysis updated 16:03 UTC
Djerv vs Austevoll Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.25 expected goals for Djerv and 1.48 for Austevoll, a combined total of 3.73. That distribution gives Djerv the largest share of the 1X2 market at 55%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 72% for over 2.5 goals and 69% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 55% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Djerv win
55.1% probability
Expected goals
2.25 – 1.48
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Djerv home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Austevoll away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Djerv to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 55%, against 55% / 20% / 25% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.25 goals for Djerv and 1.48 for Austevoll, a combined 3.73 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
75%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
45%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.0%
- 1–18.0%
- 3–16.8%
- 2–26.6%
- 2–06.1%
Recent form
Djerv
- 2026-10-17T10:30:00.000Z · A vs Førde · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-12T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Brann II · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Gneist · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Sogndal II · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-17T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Stord · 4-3 (W)
Austevoll
- 2026-10-03T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Sogndal II · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Gneist · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Askøy · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Djerv · 2-5 (L)
- 2026-09-05T12:45:00.000Z · H vs Varegg · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-12T11:30:00.000Z · Djerv 5-2 Austevoll (3. Division - Girone 3)
- 2026-05-09T12:00:00.000Z · Djerv 4-0 Austevoll (3. Division - Girone 3)
3. Division - Girone 3 table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Djerv win, at 55.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 69% and over 2.5 goals at 72%.
A 55% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.