· Analysis updated 13:38 UTC
Djerv vs Fana Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.73 expected goals for Djerv and 2.13 for Fana, a combined total of 4.85. That distribution gives Djerv the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 86% for over 2.5 goals and 82% for both teams to score, with 2–2 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Djerv win
51.4% probability
Expected goals
2.73 – 2.13
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Djerv home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Fana away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Djerv to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 51%, against 51% / 18% / 31% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.73 goals for Djerv and 2.13 for Fana, a combined 4.85 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
70%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
49%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–26.6%
- 2–16.2%
- 3–26.0%
- 3–15.6%
- 1–24.8%
Recent form
Djerv
- 2026-10-17T10:30:00.000Z · A vs Førde · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-12T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Brann II · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Gneist · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Sogndal II · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-17T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Stord · 4-3 (W)
Fana
- 2026-09-26T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Vard · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Førde · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Os · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-05T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Stord · 5-3 (W)
- 2026-08-31T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Brann II · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
3. Division - Girone 3 table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Djerv win, at 51.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 82% and over 2.5 goals at 86%.
A 51% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.