· Analysis updated 15:04 UTC
Djerv vs Haugesund Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.00 expected goals for Djerv and 1.87 for Haugesund, a combined total of 3.87. That distribution gives Djerv the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 74% for over 2.5 goals and 73% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
63.0% probability
Expected goals
2.00 – 1.87
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Djerv home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Haugesund away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Djerv to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 42% / 21% / 37% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.00 goals for Djerv and 1.87 for Haugesund, a combined 3.87 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
63%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
58%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–17.8%
- 2–17.8%
- 1–27.3%
- 2–27.3%
- 3–15.2%
Recent form
Djerv
- 2026-10-17T10:30:00.000Z · A vs Førde · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-12T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Brann II · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Gneist · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Sogndal II · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-17T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Stord · 4-3 (W)
Haugesund
- 2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Strommen · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-13T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Moss · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-08T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Djerv · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Sogndal · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-30T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Bryne · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 63.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 73% and over 2.5 goals at 74%.
A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.