· Analysis updated 04:57 UTC
Djerv vs Sogndal II Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.65 expected goals for Djerv and 2.23 for Sogndal II, a combined total of 4.88. That distribution gives Djerv the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 86% for over 2.5 goals and 83% for both teams to score, with 2–2 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Djerv win
48.2% probability
Expected goals
2.65 – 2.23
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Djerv home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Sogndal II away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Djerv to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 48%, against 48% / 18% / 33% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.65 goals for Djerv and 2.23 for Sogndal II, a combined 4.88 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
67%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
52%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–26.6%
- 2–16.0%
- 3–25.9%
- 3–15.3%
- 1–25.0%
Recent form
Djerv
- 2026-10-17T10:30:00.000Z · A vs Førde · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-12T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Brann II · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Gneist · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Sogndal II · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-17T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Stord · 4-3 (W)
Sogndal II
- 2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Gneist · 5-3 (W)
- 2026-10-03T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Austevoll · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Djerv · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Vard · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Varegg · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-06-13T11:00:00.000Z · Djerv 1-2 Sogndal II (3. Division - Girone 3)
3. Division - Girone 3 table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Djerv win, at 48.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 83% and over 2.5 goals at 86%.
A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.