· Analysis updated 13:42 UTC
DJK Bamberg vs Ammerthal Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.17 expected goals for DJK Bamberg and 1.48 for Ammerthal, a combined total of 2.65. That distribution gives Ammerthal the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 49% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Draw/Away
69.9% probability
Expected goals
1.17 – 1.48
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
DJK Bamberg home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Ammerthal away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Ammerthal to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 30% / 26% / 44% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.17 goals for DJK Bamberg and 1.48 for Ammerthal, a combined 2.65 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
56%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
70%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.2%
- 0–110.4%
- 1–29.0%
- 1–08.3%
- 0–27.7%
Recent form
DJK Bamberg
- 2026-10-09T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Cham · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-02T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Eintracht Bamberg · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-25T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Neudrossenfeld · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Ingolstadt II · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-12T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Nordlingen · 1-0 (W)
Ammerthal
- 2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Eintracht Bamberg · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Neudrossenfeld · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-25T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Ingolstadt II · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Nordlingen · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Würzburger FV · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Oberliga - Bayern Nord table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cham | 14 | 12 | 1 | 1 | 23 | 37 |
| 2 | Würzburger FV | 14 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 27 |
| 3 | Gebenbach | 14 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 26 |
| 4 | Eintracht Bamberg | 14 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 11 | 25 |
| 5 | Kornburg | 14 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 12 | 24 |
| 6 | Bayern Hof | 14 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 23 |
| 7 | Jahn Regensburg II | 14 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 23 |
| 8 | Fortuna Regensburg | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 21 |
| 9 | Viktoria Aschaffenburg | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 21 |
| 10 | Stadeln | 14 | 5 | 5 | 4 | -3 | 20 |
| 11 | Neudrossenfeld | 14 | 6 | 1 | 7 | -2 | 19 |
| 12 | Ammerthal | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | -9 | 15 |
| 13 | Ingolstadt II | 14 | 3 | 4 | 7 | -8 | 13 |
| 14 | Weiden | 14 | 3 | 4 | 7 | -9 | 13 |
| 15 | Großbardorf | 14 | 4 | 1 | 9 | -10 | 13 |
| 16 | DJK Bamberg | 14 | 2 | 5 | 7 | -15 | 11 |
| 17 | Nordlingen | 14 | 2 | 4 | 8 | -17 | 10 |
| 18 | ASV Neumarkt | 14 | 1 | 3 | 10 | -17 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 69.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 49%.
A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.