DJK Bamberg vs Stadeln Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.40 expected goals for DJK Bamberg and 1.38 for Stadeln, a combined total of 2.78. That distribution gives DJK Bamberg the largest share of the 1X2 market at 38%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 53% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 38% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

63.3% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.40 – 1.38

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

DJK Bamberg home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Stadeln away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates DJK Bamberg to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 38%, against 38% / 25% / 37% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.40 goals for DJK Bamberg and 1.38 for Stadeln, a combined 2.78 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

DJK Bamberg win38%

Draw25%

Stadeln win37%

Double chance 1X

63%

Double chance 12

75%

Double chance X2

62%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals77%

Over 2.5 goals53%

Over 3.5 goals30%

Both teams to score56%

Correct score

1–112.0%
1–08.7%
0–18.5%
2–18.4%
1–28.3%

Recent form

DJK Bamberg

2026-10-09T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Cham · 1-2 (L)
2026-10-02T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Eintracht Bamberg · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-25T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Neudrossenfeld · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Ingolstadt II · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-12T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Nordlingen · 1-0 (W)

Stadeln

2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Großbardorf · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Fortuna Regensburg · 1-4 (L)
2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Weiden · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Bayern Hof · 1-2 (L)
2026-08-28T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Kornburg · 1-1 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Oberliga - Bayern Nord table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Cham	16	14	1	1	29	43
2	Würzburger FV	16	9	4	3	13	31
3	Bayern Hof	16	8	5	3	11	29
4	Eintracht Bamberg	15	8	4	3	13	28
5	Kornburg	15	7	6	2	14	27
6	Gebenbach	16	8	3	5	1	27
7	Jahn Regensburg II	16	7	5	4	10	26
8	Viktoria Aschaffenburg	16	6	5	5	6	23
9	Fortuna Regensburg	16	6	4	6	8	22
10	Stadeln	16	5	6	5	-7	21
11	Neudrossenfeld	16	6	1	9	-5	19
12	Großbardorf	16	6	1	9	-7	19
13	Weiden	16	4	5	7	-8	17
14	Ammerthal	16	4	3	9	-14	15
15	DJK Bamberg	16	3	5	8	-14	14
16	Nordlingen	16	3	5	8	-16	14
17	Ingolstadt II	16	3	4	9	-11	13
18	ASV Neumarkt	16	1	3	12	-23	6

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 63.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 56% and over 2.5 goals at 53%.

A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.