· Analysis updated 05:13 UTC
Dnister Zalishchyky vs Nyva Ternopil II Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.53 expected goals for Dnister Zalishchyky and 1.43 for Nyva Ternopil II, a combined total of 3.95. That distribution gives Dnister Zalishchyky the largest share of the 1X2 market at 61%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 75% for over 2.5 goals and 70% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 61% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Dnister Zalishchyky win
61.4% probability
Expected goals
2.53 – 1.43
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Dnister Zalishchyky home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Nyva Ternopil II away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Dnister Zalishchyky to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 61%, against 61% / 18% / 20% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.53 goals for Dnister Zalishchyky and 1.43 for Nyva Ternopil II, a combined 3.95 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
80%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
39%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.7%
- 3–17.4%
- 1–16.9%
- 2–26.2%
- 2–06.1%
Recent form
Dnister Zalishchyky
- 2026-10-24T10:30:00.000Z · A vs Skala 1911 Stryi · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-17T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Nyva Ternopil II · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-11T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Dinaz Vyshhorod · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Nyva Vinnytsya · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Bratslav Vinnytsia · 3-3 (D)
Nyva Ternopil II
- 2026-10-17T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Dnister Zalishchyky · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-09T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Vilkhivtsi · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-03T09:15:00.000Z · H vs Dinaz Vyshhorod · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-25T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Podillya Khmelnytskyi · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-14T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Ruh Lviv · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-09T12:00:00.000Z · Dnister Zalishchyky 0-1 Nyva Ternopil II (Druha Liga)
Druha Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bratslav Vinnytsia | 11 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 17 | 25 |
| 1 | Karbon Cherkasy | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 11 | 18 |
| 2 | Dnister Zalishchyky | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 21 |
| 2 | Lozova | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | -1 | 16 |
| 3 | Nyva Vinnytsya | 11 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 7 | 20 |
| 3 | Rebel | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 14 |
| 4 | Vilkhivtsi | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | -2 | 14 |
| 4 | SC Poltava 2 | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | -2 | 14 |
| 5 | Podillya Khmelnytskyi | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 13 |
| 5 | Trostianets | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 6 | Nyva Ternopil II | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -7 | 12 |
| 6 | Atlet | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 13 |
| 7 | Skala 1911 Stryi | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -4 | 11 |
| 7 | Oleksandria II | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 13 |
| 8 | Dinaz Vyshhorod | 11 | 1 | 5 | 5 | -10 | 8 |
| 8 | Metalurh Zaporizhya | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 12 |
| 9 | Ruh Lviv | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | -3 | 5 |
| 9 | Penuel | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | -17 | 8 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Dnister Zalishchyky win, at 61.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 70% and over 2.5 goals at 75%.
A 61% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.