Dobrovce vs Šmartno Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.86 expected goals for Dobrovce and 2.64 for Šmartno, a combined total of 4.50. That distribution gives Šmartno the largest share of the 1X2 market at 55%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 82% for over 2.5 goals and 78% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 55% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Šmartno win

54.9% probability

Low confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.86 – 2.64

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Šmartno away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Šmartno to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 55%, against 27% / 18% / 55% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.86 goals for Dobrovce and 2.64 for Šmartno, a combined 4.50 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 82% and both teams to score at 78%, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 7%.

Match result (1X2)

Dobrovce win27%

Draw18%

Šmartno win55%

Double chance 1X

45%

Double chance 12

82%

Double chance X2

73%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals94%

Over 2.5 goals82%

Over 3.5 goals66%

Both teams to score78%

Correct score

1–27.2%
2–26.7%
1–36.4%
2–35.9%
1–15.5%

Recent form

Dobrovce

Šmartno

2026-10-10T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Fužinar · 1-5 (L)
2026-10-03T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Limbuš Pekre · 4-0 (W)
2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Ljutomer · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Podvinci · 8-1 (W)
2026-09-12T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Čarda Martjanci · 1-7 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

3. SNL - East table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Odranci	9	7	2	0	16	23
2	Fužinar	9	6	1	2	11	19
3	Šmartno	9	5	1	3	4	16
4	NK Ormoz	9	5	1	3	4	16
5	Hajdina	10	4	4	2	3	16
6	Čarda Martjanci	9	4	3	2	7	15
7	Videm	10	4	2	4	-2	14
8	Podvinci	10	4	2	4	-4	14
9	Korotan Prevalje	9	2	5	2	1	11
10	Rače	9	2	4	3	0	10
11	Dobrovce	9	3	0	6	-11	9
12	Ljutomer	10	2	2	6	-4	8
13	Limbuš Pekre	9	1	2	6	-15	5
14	Šampion Celje	9	1	1	7	-10	4

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Šmartno win, at 54.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.

It puts both teams scoring at 78% and over 2.5 goals at 82%.

A 55% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.