Jamhuri Stadium · Analysis updated 08:52 UTC
Dodoma Jiji vs Mbeya City Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.15 expected goals for Dodoma Jiji and 0.70 for Mbeya City, a combined total of 1.85. That distribution gives Dodoma Jiji the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 31%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 28% for over 2.5 goals and 34% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 18%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Dodoma Jiji win
46.6% probability
Expected goals
1.15 – 0.70
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Dodoma Jiji home form
2 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Mbeya City away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Dodoma Jiji to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 47%, against 47% / 31% / 22% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.15 goals for Dodoma Jiji and 0.70 for Mbeya City, a combined 1.85 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
78%
Double chance 12
69%
Double chance X2
53%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–018.1%
- 0–015.7%
- 1–112.6%
- 0–111.0%
- 2–010.4%
Recent form
Dodoma Jiji
- 2026-08-29T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Tabora United · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-25T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Polisi Tanzania · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-19T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Mbeya City · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-14T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Pamba Jiji · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-06-30T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Azam · 0-2 (L)
Mbeya City
- 2026-08-28T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Fountain Gate · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-23T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Mashujaa · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-19T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Dodoma Jiji · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-14T13:15:00.000Z · H vs Geita Gold · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-07-08T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Tanzania Prisons · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Ligi kuu Bara table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Simba | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 24 |
| 2 | Young Africans | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 19 |
| 3 | Azam | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 17 |
| 4 | JKT Tanzania | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 16 |
| 5 | Dodoma Jiji | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 6 | Polisi Tanzania | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 12 |
| 7 | Namungo | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | -3 | 12 |
| 8 | Mashujaa | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | -4 | 12 |
| 9 | Singida Black Stars | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 11 |
| 10 | Mbeya City | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -1 | 10 |
| 11 | Coastal Union | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -5 | 10 |
| 12 | Tabora United | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -1 | 7 |
| 13 | Geita Gold | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -6 | 7 |
| 14 | Pamba Jiji | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -5 | 6 |
| 15 | Kagera Sugar | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -8 | 6 |
| 16 | Fountain Gate | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -8 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Dodoma Jiji win, at 46.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 34% and over 2.5 goals at 28%.
A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.