Zugni Tauro · Analysis updated 15:08 UTC
Dolomiti Bellunesi vs Trento Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.58 expected goals for Dolomiti Bellunesi and 0.92 for Trento, a combined total of 1.50. That distribution gives Trento the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 36%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 19% for over 2.5 goals and 26% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 22%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Draw/Away
78.2% probability
Expected goals
0.58 – 0.92
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Dolomiti Bellunesi home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Trento away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Trento to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 22% / 36% / 42% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.58 goals for Dolomiti Bellunesi and 0.92 for Trento, a combined 1.50 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
58%
Double chance 12
64%
Double chance X2
78%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–022.3%
- 0–120.6%
- 1–012.8%
- 1–111.9%
- 0–29.5%
Recent form
Dolomiti Bellunesi
- 2026-09-21T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Lumezzane · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-17T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Renate · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Albinoleffe · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Giana Erminio · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-02T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Arzignano Valchiampo · 2-2 (D)
Trento
- 2026-10-11T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Folgore Caratese · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-04T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Alcione · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-26T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Pergolettese · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-21T18:30:00.000Z · H vs PRO Vercelli · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-17T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Giana Erminio · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Serie C - Girone A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cittadella | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 21 |
| 2 | Union Brescia | 8 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 8 | 16 |
| 3 | Ospitaletto | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 15 |
| 4 | Arzignano Valchiampo | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 5 | Trento | 8 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 6 | 14 |
| 6 | Treviso | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 13 |
| 7 | Albinoleffe | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 12 |
| 8 | Alcione | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | -1 | 11 |
| 9 | Dolomiti Bellunesi | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 10 |
| 10 | Desenzano Calvina | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | -1 | 10 |
| 11 | Novara | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 9 |
| 12 | PRO Vercelli | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 9 |
| 13 | Lecco | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 9 |
| 14 | Lumezzane | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 8 |
| 15 | Pergolettese | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | -2 | 8 |
| 16 | Athletic Carpi | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -7 | 6 |
| 17 | Folgore Caratese | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -3 | 6 |
| 18 | Juventus U23 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -6 | 6 |
| 19 | Giana Erminio | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | -4 | 4 |
| 20 | Renate | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | -6 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 78.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 26% and over 2.5 goals at 19%.
A 78% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.