· Analysis updated 13:23 UTC
Dolomiti Bellunesi vs Virtus Verona Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.25 expected goals for Dolomiti Bellunesi and 0.95 for Virtus Verona, a combined total of 2.20. That distribution gives Dolomiti Bellunesi the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 38% for over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
71.9% probability
Expected goals
1.25 – 0.95
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Dolomiti Bellunesi home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Virtus Verona away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Dolomiti Bellunesi to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 43% / 29% / 28% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.25 goals for Dolomiti Bellunesi and 0.95 for Virtus Verona, a combined 2.20 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
72%
Double chance 12
71%
Double chance X2
57%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–013.8%
- 1–113.2%
- 0–011.1%
- 0–110.5%
- 2–08.7%
Recent form
Dolomiti Bellunesi
- 2026-09-21T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Lumezzane · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-17T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Renate · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Albinoleffe · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Giana Erminio · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-02T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Arzignano Valchiampo · 2-2 (D)
Virtus Verona
- 2026-10-18T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Tritium · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-11T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Chievo · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Virtus Ciserano Bergamo · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Pavonese · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Club Milano · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 71.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 44% and over 2.5 goals at 38%.
A 72% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.