Pantami Stadium · Analysis updated 18:33 UTC
Doma United vs Ikorodu City Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.21 expected goals for Doma United and 1.13 for Ikorodu City, a combined total of 2.34. That distribution gives Doma United the largest share of the 1X2 market at 38%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 42% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 38% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Home/Draw
66.0% probability
Expected goals
1.21 – 1.13
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Doma United home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Ikorodu City away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Doma United to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 38%, against 38% / 28% / 34% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.21 goals for Doma United and 1.13 for Ikorodu City, a combined 2.34 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
66%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
62%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–113.2%
- 1–011.6%
- 0–110.8%
- 0–09.6%
- 2–18.0%
Recent form
Doma United
- 2026-10-11T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Nasarawa United · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-04T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Warri Wolves · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Katsina United · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-23T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Plateau United · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Kano Pillars · 1-4 (L)
Ikorodu City
- 2026-10-18T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Niger Tornadoes · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-10T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Kwara United · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-04T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Rivers United · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-30T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Sporting Lagos · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-27T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Enugu Rangers · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
NPFL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rivers United | 9 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 11 | 17 |
| 2 | Enugu Rangers | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 17 |
| 3 | Plateau United | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 15 |
| 4 | Sporting Lagos | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 15 |
| 5 | Barau FC | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 14 |
| 6 | Nasarawa United | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 14 |
| 7 | Kano Pillars | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 14 |
| 8 | Doma United | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 14 |
| 9 | Katsina United | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | -2 | 13 |
| 10 | Ikorodu City | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 12 |
| 11 | Bendel Insurance | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 12 |
| 12 | Niger Tornadoes | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 12 |
| 13 | Kwara United | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 11 |
| 14 | Warri Wolves | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 11 |
| 15 | Shooting Stars | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 11 |
| 16 | Abia Warriors | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | -3 | 10 |
| 17 | Kun Khalifat FC | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -7 | 9 |
| 18 | Enyimba | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 8 |
| 19 | Ranchers Bees | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 8 |
| 20 | Inter Lagos | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | -13 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 66.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 42%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.