· Analysis updated 13:48 UTC
Domagnano vs Folgore Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.03 expected goals for Domagnano and 2.14 for Folgore, a combined total of 3.17. That distribution gives Folgore the largest share of the 1X2 market at 63%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 61% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 63% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Folgore win
62.6% probability
Expected goals
1.03 – 2.14
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Domagnano home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Folgore away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Folgore to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 63%, against 17% / 20% / 63% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.03 goals for Domagnano and 2.14 for Folgore, a combined 3.17 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
37%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
83%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–29.9%
- 0–29.6%
- 1–19.3%
- 0–19.0%
- 1–37.1%
Recent form
Domagnano
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · H vs La Fiorita · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-11T19:15:00.000Z · A vs Tre Fiori · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-08T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Faetano · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-04T19:15:00.000Z · H vs San Giovanni · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-08-28T19:15:00.000Z · A vs Cailungo · 2-1 (W)
Folgore
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · H vs San Marino Academy · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Juvenes / Dogana · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-09T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Libertas · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Cailungo · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-28T19:15:00.000Z · H vs Murata · 5-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Campionato table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Folgore | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 15 |
| 2 | Tre Penne | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 15 |
| 3 | Virtus | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 13 |
| 4 | Tre Fiori | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 12 |
| 5 | Cosmos | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 10 |
| 6 | La Fiorita | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 9 |
| 7 | Libertas | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 |
| 8 | Fiorentino | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 7 |
| 9 | Domagnano | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 6 |
| 10 | Juvenes / Dogana | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -1 | 3 |
| 11 | Cailungo | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -2 | 3 |
| 12 | San Giovanni | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -7 | 3 |
| 13 | Murata | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -9 | 3 |
| 14 | Pennarossa | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -13 | 3 |
| 15 | San Marino Academy | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -9 | 2 |
| 16 | Faetano | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -14 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Folgore win, at 62.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 61%.
A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.