Estadio Cibao FC · Analysis updated 10:39 UTC
Dominica vs Sint Maarten Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.28 expected goals for Dominica and 2.20 for Sint Maarten, a combined total of 3.48. That distribution gives Sint Maarten the largest share of the 1X2 market at 58%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 67% for over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 58% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Sint Maarten win
58.4% probability
Expected goals
1.28 – 2.20
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Dominica home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Sint Maarten away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Sint Maarten to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 58%, against 22% / 20% / 58% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.28 goals for Dominica and 2.20 for Sint Maarten, a combined 3.48 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
42%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
79%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–29.6%
- 1–18.7%
- 0–27.5%
- 1–37.0%
- 0–16.8%
Recent form
Dominica
- 2026-10-04T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Guyana · 1-8 (L)
- 2026-10-01T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Guyana · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-09-28T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Puerto Rico · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-25T00:10:00.000Z · A vs Cayman Islands · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-21T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Anguilla · 1-0 (W)
Sint Maarten
- 2026-10-06T21:00:00.000Z · A vs St. Vincent / Grenadines · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-10-03T21:00:00.000Z · H vs St. Vincent / Grenadines · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-09-29T21:00:00.000Z · A vs French Guyana · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-27T02:00:00.000Z · H vs Belize · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-03-30T23:30:00.000Z · A vs Dominica · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-03-30T23:30:00.000Z · Dominica 0-0 Sint Maarten (CONCACAF Series)
- 2025-11-15T20:00:00.000Z · Dominica 2-3 Sint Maarten (CONCACAF Series)
- 2018-11-20T18:45:00.000Z · Dominica 2-0 Sint Maarten (CONCACAF Nations League - Qualification)
CONCACAF Series table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Guyana | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 12 |
| 2 | British Virgin Islands | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 10 |
| 3 | Saint Martin | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 9 |
| 4 | Cuba | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 8 |
| 5 | Sint Maarten | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8 |
| 6 | Cayman Islands | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 7 |
| 7 | Belize | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 6 |
| 8 | Dominican Republic | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 9 | St. Vincent / Grenadines | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 6 |
| 10 | Anguilla | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -5 | 6 |
| 11 | Aruba | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 |
| 12 | El Salvador | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 13 | Bonaire | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 3 |
| 14 | Barbados | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -5 | 3 |
| 15 | Martinique | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -3 | 2 |
| 16 | Antigua and Barbuda | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -3 | 1 |
| 17 | Dominica | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 1 |
| 18 | St. Kitts and Nevis | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -4 | 1 |
| 19 | St. Lucia | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -5 | 0 |
| 20 | Bahamas | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -10 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Sint Maarten win, at 58.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 64% and over 2.5 goals at 67%.
A 58% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.