Dominican Republic vs Cuba Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.22 expected goals for Dominican Republic and 1.24 for Cuba, a combined total of 2.47. That distribution gives Cuba the largest share of the 1X2 market at 37%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 45% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 37% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Draw/Away

64.0% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.22 – 1.24

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Dominican Republic home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Cuba away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 8 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Cuba to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 37%, against 36% / 27% / 37% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.22 goals for Dominican Republic and 1.24 for Cuba, a combined 2.47 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Dominican Republic win36%

Draw27%

Cuba win37%

Double chance 1X

63%

Double chance 12

73%

Double chance X2

64%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals71%

Over 2.5 goals45%

Over 3.5 goals24%

Both teams to score50%

Correct score

1–112.9%
0–110.5%
1–010.4%
0–08.5%
1–28.0%

Recent form

Dominican Republic

2026-09-25T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Nicaragua · 3-2 (W)
2026-06-04T00:45:00.000Z · A vs Panama · 2-4 (L)
2026-03-29T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Cuba · 1-1 (D)
2026-03-27T00:00:00.000Z · H vs El Salvador · 2-2 (D)
2025-11-18T23:30:00.000Z · H vs Martinique · 0-0 (D)

Cuba

2026-10-02T21:00:00.000Z · A vs St. Kitts and Nevis · 3-3 (D)
2026-09-28T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Bonaire · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-25T21:00:00.000Z · A vs Grenada · 3-0 (W)
2026-03-29T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Dominican Republic · 1-1 (D)
2026-03-26T21:00:00.000Z · A vs Martinique · 2-2 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

CONCACAF Series table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Guyana	4	4	0	0	8	12
2	British Virgin Islands	4	3	1	0	11	10
3	Saint Martin	4	3	0	1	5	9
4	Cuba	4	2	2	0	5	8
5	Sint Maarten	4	2	2	0	2	8
6	Cayman Islands	4	2	1	1	4	7
7	Belize	4	2	0	2	2	6
8	Dominican Republic	4	1	3	0	2	6
9	St. Vincent / Grenadines	4	2	0	2	-1	6
10	Anguilla	4	2	0	2	-5	6
11	Aruba	2	1	1	0	3	4
12	El Salvador	2	1	1	0	1	4
13	Bonaire	4	1	0	3	-3	3
14	Barbados	4	1	0	3	-5	3
15	Martinique	4	0	2	2	-3	2
16	Antigua and Barbuda	2	0	1	1	-3	1
17	Dominica	4	0	1	3	-4	1
18	St. Kitts and Nevis	2	0	1	1	-4	1
19	St. Lucia	2	0	0	2	-5	0
20	Bahamas	4	0	0	4	-10	0

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 64.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 45%.

A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.