Estadio Olimpico Felix Sanchez · Referee Marianela Araya Cruz · Analysis updated 10:57 UTC
Dominican Republic vs Dominica Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 3.75 expected goals for Dominican Republic and 1.70 for Dominica, a combined total of 5.45. That distribution gives Dominican Republic the largest share of the 1X2 market at 74%, with the draw at 12%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 89% for over 2.5 goals and 79% for both teams to score, with 3–1 the single most likely scoreline at 6%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 74% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Dominican Republic win
74.3% probability
Expected goals
3.75 – 1.70
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Dominican Republic home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Dominica away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Dominican Republic to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 74%, against 74% / 12% / 13% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 3.75 goals for Dominican Republic and 1.70 for Dominica, a combined 5.45 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
87%
Double chance 12
88%
Double chance X2
26%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 3–16.4%
- 4–16.0%
- 3–25.5%
- 2–15.1%
- 4–25.1%
Recent form
Dominican Republic
- 2026-10-05T02:00:00.000Z · A vs Nicaragua · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-02T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Haiti · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-28T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Trinidad and Tobago · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-25T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Nicaragua · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-06-04T00:45:00.000Z · A vs Panama · 2-4 (L)
Dominica
- 2026-10-04T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Guyana · 1-8 (L)
- 2026-10-01T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Guyana · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-09-28T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Puerto Rico · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-25T00:10:00.000Z · A vs Cayman Islands · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-21T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Anguilla · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
World Cup - Qualification CONCACAF table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Panama | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 12 |
| 2 | Suriname | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 9 |
| 3 | Guatemala | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| 4 | El Salvador | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | -9 | 3 |
| 1 | Curaçao | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 10 | 12 |
| 2 | Jamaica | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 11 |
| 3 | Trinidad and Tobago | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 4 | Bermuda | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | -19 | 1 |
| 1 | Haiti | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 11 |
| 2 | Honduras | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 9 |
| 3 | Costa Rica | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 4 | Nicaragua | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -8 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Dominican Republic win, at 74.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 3–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 79% and over 2.5 goals at 89%.
A 74% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.