AT&T Stadium · Referee Ismael Alexander Cornejo Meléndez · Analysis updated 04:47 UTC
Dominican Republic vs Suriname Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.63 expected goals for Dominican Republic and 1.24 for Suriname, a combined total of 2.87. That distribution gives Dominican Republic the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 55% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Dominican Republic win
46.6% probability
Expected goals
1.63 – 1.24
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Dominican Republic home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Suriname away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Dominican Republic to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 47%, against 47% / 24% / 29% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.63 goals for Dominican Republic and 1.24 for Suriname, a combined 2.87 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
71%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
53%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.5%
- 2–19.3%
- 1–09.3%
- 2–07.6%
- 1–27.1%
Recent form
Dominican Republic
- 2026-09-25T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Nicaragua · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-06-04T00:45:00.000Z · A vs Panama · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-03-29T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Cuba · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-03-27T00:00:00.000Z · H vs El Salvador · 2-2 (D)
- 2025-11-18T23:30:00.000Z · H vs Martinique · 0-0 (D)
Suriname
- 2026-10-06T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Guatemala · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-02T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Guatemala · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-28T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Martinique · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Honduras · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-03-26T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Bolivia · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
CONCACAF Gold Cup table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mexico | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 7 |
| 2 | Costa Rica | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 |
| 3 | Dominican Republic | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 1 |
| 4 | Suriname | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 1 |
| 1 | Canada | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 7 |
| 2 | Honduras | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 6 |
| 3 | Curaçao | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 |
| 4 | El Salvador | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -4 | 1 |
| 1 | Panama | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 9 |
| 2 | Guatemala | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 |
| 3 | Jamaica | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 3 |
| 4 | Guadeloupe | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -5 | 0 |
| 1 | USA | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 9 |
| 2 | Saudi Arabia | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 3 | Trinidad and Tobago | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -5 | 2 |
| 4 | Haiti | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Dominican Republic win, at 46.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 55%.
A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.