Don Benito vs Marbella Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.71 expected goals for Don Benito and 1.06 for Marbella, a combined total of 2.77. That distribution gives Don Benito the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Don Benito win

52.5% probability

Low confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.71 – 1.06

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Don Benito home form
12 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Marbella away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Don Benito to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 53%, against 53% / 24% / 24% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.71 goals for Don Benito and 1.06 for Marbella, a combined 2.77 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Don Benito win53%

Draw24%

Marbella win24%

Double chance 1X

77%

Double chance 12

76%

Double chance X2

48%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals76%

Over 2.5 goals52%

Over 3.5 goals30%

Both teams to score54%

Correct score

1–111.4%
1–010.7%
2–19.7%
2–09.2%
0–16.7%

Recent form

Don Benito

2026-10-03T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Estepona · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-26T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Sanluqueño · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-20T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Xerez · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-13T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Las Palmas II · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-06T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Antoniano · 2-1 (W)

Marbella

2026-10-11T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Badajoz · 0-1 (L)
2026-10-04T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Real Betis II · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-27T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Puente Genil · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-20T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Atlético Central · 4-1 (W)
2026-09-13T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Sevilla Atletico · 0-3 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Real Betis II	6	4	2	0	8	14
2	Recreativo Huelva	6	4	1	1	6	13
3	Ciudad de Lucena	6	3	2	1	5	11
4	Badajoz	6	3	2	1	2	11
5	Tenerife II	6	3	1	2	2	10
6	Estepona	6	3	1	2	1	10
7	Don Benito	6	3	1	2	1	10
8	Linares Deportivo	6	3	1	2	0	10
9	Mijas Las Lagunas	6	2	3	1	2	9
10	Sevilla Atletico	6	2	2	2	0	8
11	Puente Genil	6	2	1	3	1	7
12	Sanluqueño	6	1	4	1	0	7
13	Xerez	6	1	3	2	-1	6
14	Atlético Central	6	2	0	4	-3	6
15	Marbella	6	1	2	3	-3	5
16	Las Palmas II	6	1	2	3	-7	5
17	Tamaraceite	6	1	0	5	-8	3
18	Antoniano	6	0	2	4	-6	2

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Don Benito win, at 52.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.

A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.